Recent polls place the SPD at 28-29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, down sharply from its 39.6% result in 2021 but showing modest gains of 1-2 points since spring. Incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and the SPD’s focused catch-up campaign have narrowed the gap to the leading AfD (35-36%), while the Linke holds steady near 11-12%. With three weeks remaining, final-week momentum, turnout among eastern voters, and any late shifts in AfD or smaller-party support could still move the SPD across the 28-31% or 31%+ thresholds reflected in current trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31%+ 40%
28-31% 25%
25-28% 25%
<25% 8%
$13,403 Vol.
$13,403 Vol.
<25%
8%
25-28%
25%
28-31%
25%
31%+
40%
31%+ 40%
28-31% 25%
25-28% 25%
<25% 8%
$13,403 Vol.
$13,403 Vol.
<25%
8%
25-28%
25%
28-31%
25%
31%+
40%
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place the SPD at 28-29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, down sharply from its 39.6% result in 2021 but showing modest gains of 1-2 points since spring. Incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and the SPD’s focused catch-up campaign have narrowed the gap to the leading AfD (35-36%), while the Linke holds steady near 11-12%. With three weeks remaining, final-week momentum, turnout among eastern voters, and any late shifts in AfD or smaller-party support could still move the SPD across the 28-31% or 31%+ thresholds reflected in current trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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