Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August shows the AfD holding steady near 36 percent support ahead of the September 20 election, translating into seat projections clustered around 28–33 in the Landtag under the five-percent threshold and overhang-leveling rules. The SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly to 29 percent, while the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW hover near or below entry thresholds, creating sensitivity to small shifts in turnout or minor-party performance that can swing AfD totals by several seats. No major late developments have altered these patterns since summer surveys, leaving trader consensus balanced between the 28–31 and 32–35 seat bins as the final campaign weeks unfold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32-35 50%
28-31 48%
20-23 3.6%
36+ 3.1%
$16,653 Vol.
$16,653 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
2%
20-23
4%
24-27
1%
28-31
48%
32-35
50%
36+
3%
32-35 50%
28-31 48%
20-23 3.6%
36+ 3.1%
$16,653 Vol.
$16,653 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$264 Vol.
2%
20-23
$908 Vol.
4%
24-27
$2,801 Vol.
1%
28-31
$11,293 Vol.
48%
32-35
$873 Vol.
50%
36+
$514 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August shows the AfD holding steady near 36 percent support ahead of the September 20 election, translating into seat projections clustered around 28–33 in the Landtag under the five-percent threshold and overhang-leveling rules. The SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly to 29 percent, while the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW hover near or below entry thresholds, creating sensitivity to small shifts in turnout or minor-party performance that can swing AfD totals by several seats. No major late developments have altered these patterns since summer surveys, leaving trader consensus balanced between the 28–31 and 32–35 seat bins as the final campaign weeks unfold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Volume
$16,653End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August shows the AfD holding steady near 36 percent support ahead of the September 20 election, translating into seat projections clustered around 28–33 in the Landtag under the five-percent threshold and overhang-leveling rules. The SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly to 29 percent, while the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW hover near or below entry thresholds, creating sensitivity to small shifts in turnout or minor-party performance that can swing AfD totals by several seats. No major late developments have altered these patterns since summer surveys, leaving trader consensus balanced between the 28–31 and 32–35 seat bins as the final campaign weeks unfold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$16,653End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August shows the AfD holding steady near 36 percent support ahead of the September 20 election, translating into seat projections clustered around 28–33 in the Landtag under the five-percent threshold and overhang-leveling rules. The SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has narrowed the gap modestly to 29 percent, while the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW hover near or below entry thresholds, creating sensitivity to small shifts in turnout or minor-party performance that can swing AfD totals by several seats. No major late developments have altered these patterns since summer surveys, leaving trader consensus balanced between the 28–31 and 32–35 seat bins as the final campaign weeks unfold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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