Morena enters the June 2027 legislative elections for Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies with a commanding lead in voting-intention surveys conducted through mid-2026, typically ranging from 39% to 49% compared with single-digit to mid-teen shares for PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano. This positioning reflects the party’s territorial control of 24 governorships, its role in the governing coalition with PT and PVEM, and sustained voter backing for the Sheinbaum administration’s legislative agenda. Opposition fragmentation and limited recent electoral gains have kept rival probabilities low. Traders price the outcome at 92% for Morena because current polling averages and structural incumbency advantages outweigh coalition frictions or localized governance strains observed so far. A major erosion in presidential approval, decisive opposition consolidation, or sharp internal coalition splits remain the developments most likely to narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMorena 92.1%
PAN 7.3%
PRI 1.1%
MC <1%
$100,936 Vol.
$100,936 Vol.
Jun 5, 2027
Morena
92%
PAN
7%
PRI
1%
MC
<1%
PT
<1%
PVEM
<1%
Morena 92.1%
PAN 7.3%
PRI 1.1%
MC <1%
$100,936 Vol.
$100,936 Vol.
Jun 5, 2027
Morena
$55,543 Vol.
92%
PAN
$16,890 Vol.
7%
PRI
$7,799 Vol.
1%
MC
$8,433 Vol.
<1%
PT
$6,129 Vol.
<1%
PVEM
$6,141 Vol.
<1%
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena enters the June 2027 legislative elections for Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies with a commanding lead in voting-intention surveys conducted through mid-2026, typically ranging from 39% to 49% compared with single-digit to mid-teen shares for PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano. This positioning reflects the party’s territorial control of 24 governorships, its role in the governing coalition with PT and PVEM, and sustained voter backing for the Sheinbaum administration’s legislative agenda. Opposition fragmentation and limited recent electoral gains have kept rival probabilities low. Traders price the outcome at 92% for Morena because current polling averages and structural incumbency advantages outweigh coalition frictions or localized governance strains observed so far. A major erosion in presidential approval, decisive opposition consolidation, or sharp internal coalition splits remain the developments most likely to narrow the gap before election day.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$100,936End Date
Jun 6, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena enters the June 2027 legislative elections for Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies with a commanding lead in voting-intention surveys conducted through mid-2026, typically ranging from 39% to 49% compared with single-digit to mid-teen shares for PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano. This positioning reflects the party’s territorial control of 24 governorships, its role in the governing coalition with PT and PVEM, and sustained voter backing for the Sheinbaum administration’s legislative agenda. Opposition fragmentation and limited recent electoral gains have kept rival probabilities low. Traders price the outcome at 92% for Morena because current polling averages and structural incumbency advantages outweigh coalition frictions or localized governance strains observed so far. A major erosion in presidential approval, decisive opposition consolidation, or sharp internal coalition splits remain the developments most likely to narrow the gap before election day.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Volume
$100,936End Date
Jun 6, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Morena enters the June 2027 legislative elections for Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies with a commanding lead in voting-intention surveys conducted through mid-2026, typically ranging from 39% to 49% compared with single-digit to mid-teen shares for PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano. This positioning reflects the party’s territorial control of 24 governorships, its role in the governing coalition with PT and PVEM, and sustained voter backing for the Sheinbaum administration’s legislative agenda. Opposition fragmentation and limited recent electoral gains have kept rival probabilities low. Traders price the outcome at 92% for Morena because current polling averages and structural incumbency advantages outweigh coalition frictions or localized governance strains observed so far. A major erosion in presidential approval, decisive opposition consolidation, or sharp internal coalition splits remain the developments most likely to narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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