Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of its in-house MAI model family, followed by MAI-Thinking-1’s public preview release in Foundry on August 12, forms the core driver behind current odds. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model, trained from scratch without distillation, reports competitive results on math benchmarks like AIME 2025/2026 and SWE-Bench Pro while earning human preference wins over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests. Traders are weighing Microsoft’s accelerating shift of production Copilot and Azure workloads onto first-party models for cost and data-control advantages against the model’s still-limited external validation and ongoing “hill-climbing” refinements. Key near-term catalysts include further Foundry GA timelines, additional benchmark releases, and any enterprise adoption metrics that could shift perceived readiness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
26%
December 31
55%
$489 Vol.
September 30
$188 Vol.
26%
December 31
$301 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of its in-house MAI model family, followed by MAI-Thinking-1’s public preview release in Foundry on August 12, forms the core driver behind current odds. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model, trained from scratch without distillation, reports competitive results on math benchmarks like AIME 2025/2026 and SWE-Bench Pro while earning human preference wins over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests. Traders are weighing Microsoft’s accelerating shift of production Copilot and Azure workloads onto first-party models for cost and data-control advantages against the model’s still-limited external validation and ongoing “hill-climbing” refinements. Key near-term catalysts include further Foundry GA timelines, additional benchmark releases, and any enterprise adoption metrics that could shift perceived readiness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$489End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of its in-house MAI model family, followed by MAI-Thinking-1’s public preview release in Foundry on August 12, forms the core driver behind current odds. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model, trained from scratch without distillation, reports competitive results on math benchmarks like AIME 2025/2026 and SWE-Bench Pro while earning human preference wins over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests. Traders are weighing Microsoft’s accelerating shift of production Copilot and Azure workloads onto first-party models for cost and data-control advantages against the model’s still-limited external validation and ongoing “hill-climbing” refinements. Key near-term catalysts include further Foundry GA timelines, additional benchmark releases, and any enterprise adoption metrics that could shift perceived readiness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$489End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of its in-house MAI model family, followed by MAI-Thinking-1’s public preview release in Foundry on August 12, forms the core driver behind current odds. The 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model, trained from scratch without distillation, reports competitive results on math benchmarks like AIME 2025/2026 and SWE-Bench Pro while earning human preference wins over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests. Traders are weighing Microsoft’s accelerating shift of production Copilot and Azure workloads onto first-party models for cost and data-control advantages against the model’s still-limited external validation and ongoing “hill-climbing” refinements. Key near-term catalysts include further Foundry GA timelines, additional benchmark releases, and any enterprise adoption metrics that could shift perceived readiness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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