**Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a clear edge in the open NY-21 seat for the November 3, 2026 general election, with the Republican Party at 70% implied probability versus 28% for the Democratic Party.** The district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 21-point 2024 margin establish a strong Republican baseline. Constantino, a first-time candidate and Sticker Mule CEO, secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59% of the vote against state Assemblyman Robert Smullen. Blake Gendebien, a St. Lawrence County dairy farmer, won the Democratic primary decisively and is viewed as one of the stronger challengers in recent cycles for the seat, yet faces long odds in a right-leaning North Country district. Analysts at Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Fundraising reports show both major candidates raised substantial sums, but Constantino’s Trump alignment and the district’s consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Minor-party or independent candidacies and any lingering Conservative Party line dynamics remain secondary factors unlikely to alter the overall positioning ahead of November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$61,161 Vol.
$61,161 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
70%
Democratic Party
28%
$61,161 Vol.
$61,161 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$31,390 Vol.
70%
Democratic Party
$29,770 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a clear edge in the open NY-21 seat for the November 3, 2026 general election, with the Republican Party at 70% implied probability versus 28% for the Democratic Party.**
The district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 21-point 2024 margin establish a strong Republican baseline. Constantino, a first-time candidate and Sticker Mule CEO, secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59% of the vote against state Assemblyman Robert Smullen. Blake Gendebien, a St. Lawrence County dairy farmer, won the Democratic primary decisively and is viewed as one of the stronger challengers in recent cycles for the seat, yet faces long odds in a right-leaning North Country district.
Analysts at Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Fundraising reports show both major candidates raised substantial sums, but Constantino’s Trump alignment and the district’s consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Minor-party or independent candidacies and any lingering Conservative Party line dynamics remain secondary factors unlikely to alter the overall positioning ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$61,161End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a clear edge in the open NY-21 seat for the November 3, 2026 general election, with the Republican Party at 70% implied probability versus 28% for the Democratic Party.**
The district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 21-point 2024 margin establish a strong Republican baseline. Constantino, a first-time candidate and Sticker Mule CEO, secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59% of the vote against state Assemblyman Robert Smullen. Blake Gendebien, a St. Lawrence County dairy farmer, won the Democratic primary decisively and is viewed as one of the stronger challengers in recent cycles for the seat, yet faces long odds in a right-leaning North Country district.
Analysts at Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Fundraising reports show both major candidates raised substantial sums, but Constantino’s Trump alignment and the district’s consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Minor-party or independent candidacies and any lingering Conservative Party line dynamics remain secondary factors unlikely to alter the overall positioning ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$61,161End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican nominee Anthony Constantino holds a clear edge in the open NY-21 seat for the November 3, 2026 general election, with the Republican Party at 70% implied probability versus 28% for the Democratic Party.** The district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s 21-point 2024 margin establish a strong Republican baseline. Constantino, a first-time candidate and Sticker Mule CEO, secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59% of the vote against state Assemblyman Robert Smullen. Blake Gendebien, a St. Lawrence County dairy farmer, won the Democratic primary decisively and is viewed as one of the stronger challengers in recent cycles for the seat, yet faces long odds in a right-leaning North Country district. Analysts at Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Fundraising reports show both major candidates raised substantial sums, but Constantino’s Trump alignment and the district’s consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Minor-party or independent candidacies and any lingering Conservative Party line dynamics remain secondary factors unlikely to alter the overall positioning ahead of November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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