Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, Mannion’s 2024 victory margin above 9 points, and his substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.6 million. The Democratic primary was canceled after no challengers qualified, while Republican nominee Kailee Buller emerged unopposed following several potential candidates’ withdrawals. Trader consensus at roughly 92% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high rural turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-22 House Election Winner
NY-22 House Election Winner
$21,986 Vol.
$21,986 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$21,986 Vol.
$21,986 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,827 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$11,158 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, Mannion’s 2024 victory margin above 9 points, and his substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.6 million. The Democratic primary was canceled after no challengers qualified, while Republican nominee Kailee Buller emerged unopposed following several potential candidates’ withdrawals. Trader consensus at roughly 92% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high rural turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,986End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, Mannion’s 2024 victory margin above 9 points, and his substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.6 million. The Democratic primary was canceled after no challengers qualified, while Republican nominee Kailee Buller emerged unopposed following several potential candidates’ withdrawals. Trader consensus at roughly 92% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high rural turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,986End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, Mannion’s 2024 victory margin above 9 points, and his substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.6 million. The Democratic primary was canceled after no challengers qualified, while Republican nominee Kailee Buller emerged unopposed following several potential candidates’ withdrawals. Trader consensus at roughly 92% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or late-cycle shifts. A national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high rural turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions