**Near the end of August 2026, accumulated precipitation at the Hong Kong Observatory stands well below the 425 mm threshold, driving the 93% market-implied probability for the lowest outcome.** HKO daily extracts show a monthly total of approximately 234 mm through late August against the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, reflecting persistently drier conditions with mostly light or trace rainfall in recent days. Short-term forecasts indicate only modest additional accumulation of several tens of millimeters through month-end, insufficient to approach higher bins. Resolution depends on official HKO final daily totals; an extreme late-month event exceeding 150–200 mm could theoretically shift the outcome, though current steering patterns and model guidance make such totals unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm 92%
425-450mm 4%
475-500mm <1%
500-525mm <1%
$17,403 Vol.
$17,403 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
92%
425-450mm
4%
450-475mm
<1%
475-500mm
<1%
500-525mm
<1%
525-550mm
<1%
550-600mm
<1%
600-650mm
<1%
650-700mm
<1%
700mm+
<1%
<425mm 92%
425-450mm 4%
475-500mm <1%
500-525mm <1%
$17,403 Vol.
$17,403 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$6,137 Vol.
92%
425-450mm
$924 Vol.
4%
450-475mm
$1,710 Vol.
<1%
475-500mm
$999 Vol.
<1%
500-525mm
$949 Vol.
<1%
525-550mm
$865 Vol.
<1%
550-600mm
$830 Vol.
<1%
600-650mm
$996 Vol.
<1%
650-700mm
$1,084 Vol.
<1%
700mm+
$2,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Near the end of August 2026, accumulated precipitation at the Hong Kong Observatory stands well below the 425 mm threshold, driving the 93% market-implied probability for the lowest outcome.** HKO daily extracts show a monthly total of approximately 234 mm through late August against the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, reflecting persistently drier conditions with mostly light or trace rainfall in recent days. Short-term forecasts indicate only modest additional accumulation of several tens of millimeters through month-end, insufficient to approach higher bins. Resolution depends on official HKO final daily totals; an extreme late-month event exceeding 150–200 mm could theoretically shift the outcome, though current steering patterns and model guidance make such totals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$17,403End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Near the end of August 2026, accumulated precipitation at the Hong Kong Observatory stands well below the 425 mm threshold, driving the 93% market-implied probability for the lowest outcome.** HKO daily extracts show a monthly total of approximately 234 mm through late August against the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, reflecting persistently drier conditions with mostly light or trace rainfall in recent days. Short-term forecasts indicate only modest additional accumulation of several tens of millimeters through month-end, insufficient to approach higher bins. Resolution depends on official HKO final daily totals; an extreme late-month event exceeding 150–200 mm could theoretically shift the outcome, though current steering patterns and model guidance make such totals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,403End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Near the end of August 2026, accumulated precipitation at the Hong Kong Observatory stands well below the 425 mm threshold, driving the 93% market-implied probability for the lowest outcome.** HKO daily extracts show a monthly total of approximately 234 mm through late August against the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, reflecting persistently drier conditions with mostly light or trace rainfall in recent days. Short-term forecasts indicate only modest additional accumulation of several tens of millimeters through month-end, insufficient to approach higher bins. Resolution depends on official HKO final daily totals; an extreme late-month event exceeding 150–200 mm could theoretically shift the outcome, though current steering patterns and model guidance make such totals unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions