Recent Australian inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and trimmed mean steady at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have reinforced the central bank’s hawkish tilt and lifted expectations for potential tightening. The cash rate stands at 4.35% after the August hold, with the RBA signaling readiness to raise rates if upside risks persist, while noting that high inflation may linger into 2028. Major banks including CommBank and ANZ have shifted forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike at the November 2–3 meeting, citing the broad-based July surprise and the timing after September-quarter CPI. A modestly softer labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.5% in July, provides some offset but has not materially altered the inflation focus. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution ahead of the September 29 decision and October data release, pricing the November meeting as more likely to result in no change than a hike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change 74%
25 bps increase 26.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$20,581 Vol.
$20,581 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
26%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 26.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$20,581 Vol.
$20,581 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,099 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,049 Vol.
1%
No change
$15,536 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$2,311 Vol.
26%
50+ bps increase
$586 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Australian inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and trimmed mean steady at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have reinforced the central bank’s hawkish tilt and lifted expectations for potential tightening. The cash rate stands at 4.35% after the August hold, with the RBA signaling readiness to raise rates if upside risks persist, while noting that high inflation may linger into 2028. Major banks including CommBank and ANZ have shifted forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike at the November 2–3 meeting, citing the broad-based July surprise and the timing after September-quarter CPI. A modestly softer labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.5% in July, provides some offset but has not materially altered the inflation focus. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution ahead of the September 29 decision and October data release, pricing the November meeting as more likely to result in no change than a hike.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volume
$20,581End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Australian inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and trimmed mean steady at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have reinforced the central bank’s hawkish tilt and lifted expectations for potential tightening. The cash rate stands at 4.35% after the August hold, with the RBA signaling readiness to raise rates if upside risks persist, while noting that high inflation may linger into 2028. Major banks including CommBank and ANZ have shifted forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike at the November 2–3 meeting, citing the broad-based July surprise and the timing after September-quarter CPI. A modestly softer labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.5% in July, provides some offset but has not materially altered the inflation focus. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution ahead of the September 29 decision and October data release, pricing the November meeting as more likely to result in no change than a hike.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$20,581End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Australian inflation data, with the July 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and trimmed mean steady at 3.6%—both above the RBA’s 2–3% target—have reinforced the central bank’s hawkish tilt and lifted expectations for potential tightening. The cash rate stands at 4.35% after the August hold, with the RBA signaling readiness to raise rates if upside risks persist, while noting that high inflation may linger into 2028. Major banks including CommBank and ANZ have shifted forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike at the November 2–3 meeting, citing the broad-based July surprise and the timing after September-quarter CPI. A modestly softer labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.5% in July, provides some offset but has not materially altered the inflation focus. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution ahead of the September 29 decision and October data release, pricing the November meeting as more likely to result in no change than a hike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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