**Ongoing Iran-US hostilities and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 4-10% of pre-conflict levels for months, with daily transits often in the low teens or single digits versus a normal ~85-130 vessels.** A brief June recovery following a US-Iran memorandum of understanding saw peaks near 50-78 transits on some days and partial use of a southern Omani corridor, but fighting resumed in July, collapsing gains amid renewed strikes, IRGC turn-back orders, and blacklisting of non-compliant vessels. Recent August developments reinforce the outlook. As of late August 2026, war-risk premiums remain around 40 times normal, thousands of seafarers and hundreds of vessels stay stranded, and many transits occur in “dark” mode with AIS disabled. Iran has tightened rules on routing and threatened action against dozens of tankers, while a new Iran-Oman revenue and temporary corridor agreement emerged on August 26 without producing a measurable rebound. Central routes face mine risks and clearance issues, and operators continue rerouting or limiting exposure. These sustained barriers—elevated kinetic threats, sanctions enforcement, insurance costs, and Iranian control over viable lanes—underpin trader consensus that full normalization by December 31 remains unlikely, even with four months remaining for potential diplomatic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated34% chance
$9,739,746 Vol.
$9,739,746 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
34% chance
$9,739,746 Vol.
$9,739,746 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing Iran-US hostilities and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 4-10% of pre-conflict levels for months, with daily transits often in the low teens or single digits versus a normal ~85-130 vessels.** A brief June recovery following a US-Iran memorandum of understanding saw peaks near 50-78 transits on some days and partial use of a southern Omani corridor, but fighting resumed in July, collapsing gains amid renewed strikes, IRGC turn-back orders, and blacklisting of non-compliant vessels.
Recent August developments reinforce the outlook. As of late August 2026, war-risk premiums remain around 40 times normal, thousands of seafarers and hundreds of vessels stay stranded, and many transits occur in “dark” mode with AIS disabled. Iran has tightened rules on routing and threatened action against dozens of tankers, while a new Iran-Oman revenue and temporary corridor agreement emerged on August 26 without producing a measurable rebound. Central routes face mine risks and clearance issues, and operators continue rerouting or limiting exposure.
These sustained barriers—elevated kinetic threats, sanctions enforcement, insurance costs, and Iranian control over viable lanes—underpin trader consensus that full normalization by December 31 remains unlikely, even with four months remaining for potential diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$9,739,746End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing Iran-US hostilities and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 4-10% of pre-conflict levels for months, with daily transits often in the low teens or single digits versus a normal ~85-130 vessels.** A brief June recovery following a US-Iran memorandum of understanding saw peaks near 50-78 transits on some days and partial use of a southern Omani corridor, but fighting resumed in July, collapsing gains amid renewed strikes, IRGC turn-back orders, and blacklisting of non-compliant vessels.
Recent August developments reinforce the outlook. As of late August 2026, war-risk premiums remain around 40 times normal, thousands of seafarers and hundreds of vessels stay stranded, and many transits occur in “dark” mode with AIS disabled. Iran has tightened rules on routing and threatened action against dozens of tankers, while a new Iran-Oman revenue and temporary corridor agreement emerged on August 26 without producing a measurable rebound. Central routes face mine risks and clearance issues, and operators continue rerouting or limiting exposure.
These sustained barriers—elevated kinetic threats, sanctions enforcement, insurance costs, and Iranian control over viable lanes—underpin trader consensus that full normalization by December 31 remains unlikely, even with four months remaining for potential diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$9,739,746End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing Iran-US hostilities and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 4-10% of pre-conflict levels for months, with daily transits often in the low teens or single digits versus a normal ~85-130 vessels.** A brief June recovery following a US-Iran memorandum of understanding saw peaks near 50-78 transits on some days and partial use of a southern Omani corridor, but fighting resumed in July, collapsing gains amid renewed strikes, IRGC turn-back orders, and blacklisting of non-compliant vessels. Recent August developments reinforce the outlook. As of late August 2026, war-risk premiums remain around 40 times normal, thousands of seafarers and hundreds of vessels stay stranded, and many transits occur in “dark” mode with AIS disabled. Iran has tightened rules on routing and threatened action against dozens of tankers, while a new Iran-Oman revenue and temporary corridor agreement emerged on August 26 without producing a measurable rebound. Central routes face mine risks and clearance issues, and operators continue rerouting or limiting exposure. These sustained barriers—elevated kinetic threats, sanctions enforcement, insurance costs, and Iranian control over viable lanes—underpin trader consensus that full normalization by December 31 remains unlikely, even with four months remaining for potential diplomatic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions