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icon for Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

icon for Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 75%

New People (NL) 18.8%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.1%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.1%

Polymarket

$23,082,612 Vol.

United Russia (ER) 75%

New People (NL) 18.8%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.1%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.1%

Polymarket

$23,082,612 Vol.

icon for United Russia (ER)

United Russia (ER)

$8,300,269 Vol.

75%

icon for New People (NL)

New People (NL)

$2,382,009 Vol.

19%

icon for Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$3,457,450 Vol.

5%

icon for Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$1,562,937 Vol.

1%

icon for Yabloko

Yabloko

$1,552,581 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rodina

Rodina

$2,734,433 Vol.

<1%

icon for A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$1,811,046 Vol.

<1%

icon for Civic Platform (GP)

Civic Platform (GP)

$1,282,163 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the September 18–20 State Duma election due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive organizational reach, control over single-member districts, and consistent polling dominance in official surveys. The mixed-member proportional system, combined with multi-day voting and electronic options, reinforces its structural advantages across federal and regional lists. New People has emerged as the clearest secondary contender, reflecting modest gains among urban and business-oriented voters in recent polls, while LDPR and KPRF trail further behind amid constrained opposition space. Recent developments include the Supreme Court’s August disqualification of Yabloko’s federal list after initial registration, the start of early voting in new regions, and the formal inclusion of Donbas and southern territories in nationwide balloting for the first time. These factors, alongside the absence of major independent challengers, underpin the current consensus distribution among eligible parties.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$23,082,612
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the September 18–20 State Duma election due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive organizational reach, control over single-member districts, and consistent polling dominance in official surveys. The mixed-member proportional system, combined with multi-day voting and electronic options, reinforces its structural advantages across federal and regional lists. New People has emerged as the clearest secondary contender, reflecting modest gains among urban and business-oriented voters in recent polls, while LDPR and KPRF trail further behind amid constrained opposition space. Recent developments include the Supreme Court’s August disqualification of Yabloko’s federal list after initial registration, the start of early voting in new regions, and the formal inclusion of Donbas and southern territories in nationwide balloting for the first time. These factors, alongside the absence of major independent challengers, underpin the current consensus distribution among eligible parties.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$23,082,612
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Related

icon for Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

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icon for Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

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icon for Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "United Russia (ER)" at 75%, followed by "New People (NL)" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" has generated $23.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is "United Russia (ER)" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "New People (NL)" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.