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Tech·App

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?

icon for #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?
Tech·App

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?

Sep 25

Sep 25

ChatGPT 59%

Muse from Meta 37%

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace 3.5%

Amazon Prime Video 3.5%

Polymarket
NEW

ChatGPT 59%

Muse from Meta 37%

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace 3.5%

Amazon Prime Video 3.5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for ChatGPT

ChatGPT

$20 Vol.

59%

icon for Muse from Meta

Muse from Meta

$20 Vol.

28%

icon for Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace

$161 Vol.

4%

icon for Amazon Prime Video

Amazon Prime Video

$67 Vol.

3%

icon for Google Gemini

Google Gemini

$139 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Meta’s newly launched Muse AI agent app has surged to the top of recent US App Store free charts after its early September rollout, directly challenging ChatGPT’s longstanding dominance in the productivity category. Traders assign ChatGPT the highest implied probability for September 25 amid its broader user base and consistent downloads, while Muse sits lower despite recent momentum from agentic features like proactive task handling across apps. Lower-priced options such as Google Gemini reflect limited recent gains, and reserved or niche apps highlight the potential for short-term ranking volatility driven by marketing pushes or seasonal factors ahead of the resolution date.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$408
End Date
Sep 25, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Meta’s newly launched Muse AI agent app has surged to the top of recent US App Store free charts after its early September rollout, directly challenging ChatGPT’s longstanding dominance in the productivity category. Traders assign ChatGPT the highest implied probability for September 25 amid its broader user base and consistent downloads, while Muse sits lower despite recent momentum from agentic features like proactive task handling across apps. Lower-priced options such as Google Gemini reflect limited recent gains, and reserved or niche apps highlight the potential for short-term ranking volatility driven by marketing pushes or seasonal factors ahead of the resolution date.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$408
End Date
Sep 25, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ChatGPT" at 59%, followed by "Muse from Meta" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" is "ChatGPT" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Muse from Meta" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.