Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence, with Claude Opus 5 shipping in late July and supporting models like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 arriving in early September, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around September 21–24 for the next Opus release. Traders appear to weigh ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus updates and recent signals such as the September 17 Life Sciences Verification Program rollout, which highlights continued model refinement rather than a full flagship launch. The near-even split between the top two dates reflects uncertainty over whether an incremental Opus variant will drop immediately or slip past the weekend, with no confirmed announcement yet to resolve the window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 22 38%
September 21 26.3%
No release by September 30 16%
September 24 13%
$32,440 Vol.
$32,440 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
September 20
1%
September 21
26%
September 22
38%
September 23
1%
September 24
13%
September 25
2%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
1%
September 29
7%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
16%
September 22 38%
September 21 26.3%
No release by September 30 16%
September 24 13%
$32,440 Vol.
$32,440 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
September 20
$1,154 Vol.
1%
September 21
$11,112 Vol.
26%
September 22
$2,803 Vol.
38%
September 23
$1,259 Vol.
1%
September 24
$2,810 Vol.
13%
September 25
$998 Vol.
2%
September 26
$578 Vol.
<1%
September 27
$806 Vol.
<1%
September 28
$699 Vol.
1%
September 29
$1,487 Vol.
7%
September 30
$1,521 Vol.
1%
No release by September 30
$5,232 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence, with Claude Opus 5 shipping in late July and supporting models like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 arriving in early September, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around September 21–24 for the next Opus release. Traders appear to weigh ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus updates and recent signals such as the September 17 Life Sciences Verification Program rollout, which highlights continued model refinement rather than a full flagship launch. The near-even split between the top two dates reflects uncertainty over whether an incremental Opus variant will drop immediately or slip past the weekend, with no confirmed announcement yet to resolve the window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$32,440End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence, with Claude Opus 5 shipping in late July and supporting models like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 arriving in early September, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around September 21–24 for the next Opus release. Traders appear to weigh ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus updates and recent signals such as the September 17 Life Sciences Verification Program rollout, which highlights continued model refinement rather than a full flagship launch. The near-even split between the top two dates reflects uncertainty over whether an incremental Opus variant will drop immediately or slip past the weekend, with no confirmed announcement yet to resolve the window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$32,440End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence, with Claude Opus 5 shipping in late July and supporting models like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 arriving in early September, underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around September 21–24 for the next Opus release. Traders appear to weigh ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind alongside Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus updates and recent signals such as the September 17 Life Sciences Verification Program rollout, which highlights continued model refinement rather than a full flagship launch. The near-even split between the top two dates reflects uncertainty over whether an incremental Opus variant will drop immediately or slip past the weekend, with no confirmed announcement yet to resolve the window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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