Recent ECMWF analyses and Copernicus data confirm that one or more of August 1–3, 2026, produced the highest global mean 2 m temperature on record, exceeding the prior peak by several hundredths of a degree amid persistent ocean heat content and a developing El Niño. Traders assign 98.1 % implied probability to the 1st-hottest outcome because daily anomalies reached roughly +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline during that window, consistent with the month’s trajectory toward the warmest August and possibly the warmest month ever measured. Minor model revisions or later reanalysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could alter final rankings, though current ensemble spread and historical analogs make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 98.0%
4th or lower 1.7%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
1%
3rd hottest
<1%
4th or lower
2%
1st hottest 98.0%
4th or lower 1.7%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$763 Vol.
98%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
1%
3rd hottest
$524 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$410 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent ECMWF analyses and Copernicus data confirm that one or more of August 1–3, 2026, produced the highest global mean 2 m temperature on record, exceeding the prior peak by several hundredths of a degree amid persistent ocean heat content and a developing El Niño. Traders assign 98.1 % implied probability to the 1st-hottest outcome because daily anomalies reached roughly +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline during that window, consistent with the month’s trajectory toward the warmest August and possibly the warmest month ever measured. Minor model revisions or later reanalysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could alter final rankings, though current ensemble spread and historical analogs make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,260End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent ECMWF analyses and Copernicus data confirm that one or more of August 1–3, 2026, produced the highest global mean 2 m temperature on record, exceeding the prior peak by several hundredths of a degree amid persistent ocean heat content and a developing El Niño. Traders assign 98.1 % implied probability to the 1st-hottest outcome because daily anomalies reached roughly +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline during that window, consistent with the month’s trajectory toward the warmest August and possibly the warmest month ever measured. Minor model revisions or later reanalysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could alter final rankings, though current ensemble spread and historical analogs make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,260End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF analyses and Copernicus data confirm that one or more of August 1–3, 2026, produced the highest global mean 2 m temperature on record, exceeding the prior peak by several hundredths of a degree amid persistent ocean heat content and a developing El Niño. Traders assign 98.1 % implied probability to the 1st-hottest outcome because daily anomalies reached roughly +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline during that window, consistent with the month’s trajectory toward the warmest August and possibly the warmest month ever measured. Minor model revisions or later reanalysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could alter final rankings, though current ensemble spread and historical analogs make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions