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Politics·Mexico

Baja California Governor Election Winner

icon for Baja California Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Baja California Governor Election Winner

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 43%

Julieta Ramírez Padilla 27.7%

Daylín García Ruvalcaba 4.3%

Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas 2.5%

Polymarket

$15,661 Vol.

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 43%

Julieta Ramírez Padilla 27.7%

Daylín García Ruvalcaba 4.3%

Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas 2.5%

Polymarket

$15,661 Vol.

icon for Ismael Burgueño Ruiz

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz

$3,104 Vol.

43%

icon for Julieta Ramírez Padilla

Julieta Ramírez Padilla

$6,364 Vol.

28%

icon for Daylín García Ruvalcaba

Daylín García Ruvalcaba

$300 Vol.

4%

icon for Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas

Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas

$286 Vol.

3%

icon for Gina Cruz Blackledge

Gina Cruz Blackledge

$286 Vol.

2%

icon for Víctor Galicia

Víctor Galicia

$292 Vol.

2%

icon for Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe

Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe

$341 Vol.

1%

icon for Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros

Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros

$288 Vol.

1%

icon for Ana Daniela García Salgado

Ana Daniela García Salgado

$438 Vol.

1%

icon for Evangelina Moreno Guerra

Evangelina Moreno Guerra

$292 Vol.

1%

icon for Juan Carlos Hank

Juan Carlos Hank

$331 Vol.

1%

icon for Fernando Castro Trenti

Fernando Castro Trenti

$333 Vol.

1%

icon for Gustavo de Hoyos Walther

Gustavo de Hoyos Walther

$338 Vol.

1%

icon for Karla Ruiz Macfarland

Karla Ruiz Macfarland

$313 Vol.

1%

icon for Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega

Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega

$373 Vol.

1%

icon for Montserrat Caballero Ramírez

Montserrat Caballero Ramírez

$351 Vol.

<1%

icon for Armando Ayala Robles

Armando Ayala Robles

$281 Vol.

7%

icon for Héctor Osuna Jaime

Héctor Osuna Jaime

$284 Vol.

6%

icon for Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso

Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso

$448 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jorge Ramos Hernández

Jorge Ramos Hernández

$267 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Macalpin

Gustavo Macalpin

$351 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Baja California gubernatorial race for June 2027 remains fluid in its early phase, with Morena holding a commanding lead in statewide party preference polls while its internal nomination process drives the tightest probabilities. Multiple aspirants registered in June 2026 for the party's coordination role, including frontrunners Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and Julieta Ramírez Padilla, whose relative standings in recent surveys align closely with current market pricing. Factional tensions between groups aligned with outgoing Governor Marina del Pilar and former Governor Jaime Bonilla add uncertainty, as national party leadership has yet to finalize a shortlist or conduct decisive polling. This dynamic sustains distributed odds across contenders, with separation likely to emerge from upcoming internal surveys, coalition negotiations with PT and PVEM, or shifts in candidate viability ahead of the 2027 ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$15,661
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Baja California gubernatorial race for June 2027 remains fluid in its early phase, with Morena holding a commanding lead in statewide party preference polls while its internal nomination process drives the tightest probabilities. Multiple aspirants registered in June 2026 for the party's coordination role, including frontrunners Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and Julieta Ramírez Padilla, whose relative standings in recent surveys align closely with current market pricing. Factional tensions between groups aligned with outgoing Governor Marina del Pilar and former Governor Jaime Bonilla add uncertainty, as national party leadership has yet to finalize a shortlist or conduct decisive polling. This dynamic sustains distributed odds across contenders, with separation likely to emerge from upcoming internal surveys, coalition negotiations with PT and PVEM, or shifts in candidate viability ahead of the 2027 ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$15,661
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Baja California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ismael Burgueño Ruiz" at 43%, followed by "Julieta Ramírez Padilla" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Baja California Governor Election Winner" has generated $15.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Baja California Governor Election Winner," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Baja California Governor Election Winner" is "Ismael Burgueño Ruiz" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Julieta Ramírez Padilla" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Baja California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.