**Recent inflation data showing a modest acceleration to around 6.2% in late August, combined with the Bank of Russia’s July signal for a smoother easing path, supports the market’s 62.5% probability on no change at the September 11 meeting.** Annual inflation remains well above the 4% target, with underlying measures still in the 4–5% range and expectations elevated amid fuel price volatility and fiscal expansion. The central bank revised its 2026 average rate forecast upward to 14.5–14.6% after the 25 bp cut to 14%, citing one-off factors and risks that warrant caution at this intermediate meeting where long-term projections are typically not updated. Traders price only a 35% chance of another modest cut and near-zero odds of a hike, reflecting the balance between persistent price pressures and the ongoing but decelerating easing cycle.