**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October decision.** August 2026 CPI rose to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, exceeding consensus and reflecting ongoing pass-through from the 23% minimum-wage increase, broad indexation, and resilient domestic demand. With the policy rate already at 12% following earlier 2026 hikes and a July hold, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 76.5%, while assigning only a 14.5% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Central bank communications, including the September 16 remarks from a board member emphasizing the need to “recalibrate” the degree of restrictiveness, underscore the focus on incoming data. The September 30 meeting and October inflation print will provide the next key signals for the rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 77%
25 bps increase 15%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
15%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 15%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$315 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$993 Vol.
7%
No change
$2,562 Vol.
77%
25 bps increase
$569 Vol.
15%
50+ bps increase
$856 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October decision.** August 2026 CPI rose to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, exceeding consensus and reflecting ongoing pass-through from the 23% minimum-wage increase, broad indexation, and resilient domestic demand. With the policy rate already at 12% following earlier 2026 hikes and a July hold, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 76.5%, while assigning only a 14.5% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Central bank communications, including the September 16 remarks from a board member emphasizing the need to “recalibrate” the degree of restrictiveness, underscore the focus on incoming data. The September 30 meeting and October inflation print will provide the next key signals for the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Volume
$5,294End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October decision.** August 2026 CPI rose to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, exceeding consensus and reflecting ongoing pass-through from the 23% minimum-wage increase, broad indexation, and resilient domestic demand. With the policy rate already at 12% following earlier 2026 hikes and a July hold, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 76.5%, while assigning only a 14.5% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Central bank communications, including the September 16 remarks from a board member emphasizing the need to “recalibrate” the degree of restrictiveness, underscore the focus on incoming data. The September 30 meeting and October inflation print will provide the next key signals for the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$5,294End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October decision.** August 2026 CPI rose to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, exceeding consensus and reflecting ongoing pass-through from the 23% minimum-wage increase, broad indexation, and resilient domestic demand. With the policy rate already at 12% following earlier 2026 hikes and a July hold, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 76.5%, while assigning only a 14.5% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Central bank communications, including the September 16 remarks from a board member emphasizing the need to “recalibrate” the degree of restrictiveness, underscore the focus on incoming data. The September 30 meeting and October inflation print will provide the next key signals for the rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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