**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by repeated timeline slippage and xAI’s focus on incremental Grok 4.x updates.** Confirmed in training during the January 2026 funding round on the Colossus gigawatt-scale cluster, the planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model missed original late-2025, Q1, and Q2 2026 targets. Instead, xAI shipped Grok 4.5 in July and is advancing 4.6/4.7 variants, while recent statements from Musk and SpaceX AI point to a release before year-end after incorporating expanded compute and SpaceX data. Key near-term catalysts include completion of parallel training runs, post-training evaluation, and any public benchmarks that could clarify competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 or Claude successors. The pattern of delays and intermediate releases has steadily lowered near-term release probabilities in prediction markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 30, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
39%
November 30
50%
December 31
71%
$6,585 Vol.
August 31
$3,006 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$345 Vol.
39%
November 30
$0 Vol.
50%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by repeated timeline slippage and xAI’s focus on incremental Grok 4.x updates.** Confirmed in training during the January 2026 funding round on the Colossus gigawatt-scale cluster, the planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model missed original late-2025, Q1, and Q2 2026 targets. Instead, xAI shipped Grok 4.5 in July and is advancing 4.6/4.7 variants, while recent statements from Musk and SpaceX AI point to a release before year-end after incorporating expanded compute and SpaceX data. Key near-term catalysts include completion of parallel training runs, post-training evaluation, and any public benchmarks that could clarify competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 or Claude successors. The pattern of delays and intermediate releases has steadily lowered near-term release probabilities in prediction markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,585End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by repeated timeline slippage and xAI’s focus on incremental Grok 4.x updates.** Confirmed in training during the January 2026 funding round on the Colossus gigawatt-scale cluster, the planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model missed original late-2025, Q1, and Q2 2026 targets. Instead, xAI shipped Grok 4.5 in July and is advancing 4.6/4.7 variants, while recent statements from Musk and SpaceX AI point to a release before year-end after incorporating expanded compute and SpaceX data. Key near-term catalysts include completion of parallel training runs, post-training evaluation, and any public benchmarks that could clarify competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 or Claude successors. The pattern of delays and intermediate releases has steadily lowered near-term release probabilities in prediction markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,585End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with trader sentiment shaped by repeated timeline slippage and xAI’s focus on incremental Grok 4.x updates.** Confirmed in training during the January 2026 funding round on the Colossus gigawatt-scale cluster, the planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model missed original late-2025, Q1, and Q2 2026 targets. Instead, xAI shipped Grok 4.5 in July and is advancing 4.6/4.7 variants, while recent statements from Musk and SpaceX AI point to a release before year-end after incorporating expanded compute and SpaceX data. Key near-term catalysts include completion of parallel training runs, post-training evaluation, and any public benchmarks that could clarify competitive positioning against models like GPT-5.5 or Claude successors. The pattern of delays and intermediate releases has steadily lowered near-term release probabilities in prediction markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions