No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August, positioning zero events as the market leader at 56% implied probability. VEI classification requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta or plume heights typically exceeding 10 km with substantial stratospheric injection, criteria unmet by ongoing activity at sites like Indonesia’s Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki (hundreds of small explosions with low amplitudes and limited ash columns) or Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (effusive, VEI 1–2 range). Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March list dozens of eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or continuing prior-year events without new high-explosivity thresholds crossed. Historical averages of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, combined with the absence of major unrest or model signals for intensification, sustain trader consensus for a quiet year absent late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 48%
1 27%
2 4.3%
3 1.3%
$1,157,937 Vol.
$1,157,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
58%
1
27%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 48%
1 27%
2 4.3%
3 1.3%
$1,157,937 Vol.
$1,157,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,293 Vol.
58%
1
$274,276 Vol.
27%
2
$41,482 Vol.
4%
3
$31,868 Vol.
1%
4
$35,308 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,709 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August, positioning zero events as the market leader at 56% implied probability. VEI classification requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta or plume heights typically exceeding 10 km with substantial stratospheric injection, criteria unmet by ongoing activity at sites like Indonesia’s Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki (hundreds of small explosions with low amplitudes and limited ash columns) or Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (effusive, VEI 1–2 range). Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March list dozens of eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or continuing prior-year events without new high-explosivity thresholds crossed. Historical averages of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, combined with the absence of major unrest or model signals for intensification, sustain trader consensus for a quiet year absent late developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,157,937End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August, positioning zero events as the market leader at 56% implied probability. VEI classification requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta or plume heights typically exceeding 10 km with substantial stratospheric injection, criteria unmet by ongoing activity at sites like Indonesia’s Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki (hundreds of small explosions with low amplitudes and limited ash columns) or Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (effusive, VEI 1–2 range). Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March list dozens of eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or continuing prior-year events without new high-explosivity thresholds crossed. Historical averages of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, combined with the absence of major unrest or model signals for intensification, sustain trader consensus for a quiet year absent late developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,157,937End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August, positioning zero events as the market leader at 56% implied probability. VEI classification requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta or plume heights typically exceeding 10 km with substantial stratospheric injection, criteria unmet by ongoing activity at sites like Indonesia’s Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki (hundreds of small explosions with low amplitudes and limited ash columns) or Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (effusive, VEI 1–2 range). Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March list dozens of eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or continuing prior-year events without new high-explosivity thresholds crossed. Historical averages of roughly 0.5–1 VEI ≥4 events per year, combined with the absence of major unrest or model signals for intensification, sustain trader consensus for a quiet year absent late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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