**Strong El Niño conditions and above-normal typhoon formation are the dominant drivers favoring a total exceeding 8 landfalls in China for 2026.** A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies already reaching +2.5°C in July and projected to intensify further through late 2026, is enhancing tropical cyclone genesis across the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea. This aligns with climatological patterns where El Niño shifts genesis locations favorably for tracks toward China while boosting overall activity. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 named storms for the full season (above the long-term average of ~25–26), with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China—near or slightly above the historical annual mean of roughly 7–9 landfalls (1949–2022 data from CMA best-track records show ~8.8 on average, with recent decades closer to 6–8). By late August 2026, multiple landfalls have already occurred, including Maysak and Bavi (July), Hongxia (late July, Guangdong), Dolphin (August 9, Zhejiang), Saudel (August 28–29, Zhejiang), Narra (August 25–26, Hainan/Guangdong), and Gaenari (mid-to-late August, Fujian). This elevated pace, combined with the ongoing peak season (July–September) and forecasts of continued above-average activity into September–October, supports trader consensus around totals of 9 or more. Remaining uncertainty stems from steering patterns, rapid weakening over land, and potential model divergence on late-season recurvature, but current atmospheric and oceanic conditions make fewer than 8 landfalls increasingly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 65%
8 22%
7 13%
6 3.3%
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
1%
6
3%
7
13%
8
22%
Greater than 8
65%
Greater than 8 65%
8 22%
7 13%
6 3.3%
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,132 Vol.
<1%
5
$4,119 Vol.
1%
6
$2,616 Vol.
3%
7
$1,468 Vol.
13%
8
$2,065 Vol.
22%
Greater than 8
$5,133 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Strong El Niño conditions and above-normal typhoon formation are the dominant drivers favoring a total exceeding 8 landfalls in China for 2026.**
A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies already reaching +2.5°C in July and projected to intensify further through late 2026, is enhancing tropical cyclone genesis across the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea. This aligns with climatological patterns where El Niño shifts genesis locations favorably for tracks toward China while boosting overall activity. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 named storms for the full season (above the long-term average of ~25–26), with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China—near or slightly above the historical annual mean of roughly 7–9 landfalls (1949–2022 data from CMA best-track records show ~8.8 on average, with recent decades closer to 6–8).
By late August 2026, multiple landfalls have already occurred, including Maysak and Bavi (July), Hongxia (late July, Guangdong), Dolphin (August 9, Zhejiang), Saudel (August 28–29, Zhejiang), Narra (August 25–26, Hainan/Guangdong), and Gaenari (mid-to-late August, Fujian). This elevated pace, combined with the ongoing peak season (July–September) and forecasts of continued above-average activity into September–October, supports trader consensus around totals of 9 or more. Remaining uncertainty stems from steering patterns, rapid weakening over land, and potential model divergence on late-season recurvature, but current atmospheric and oceanic conditions make fewer than 8 landfalls increasingly unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$16,533End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Strong El Niño conditions and above-normal typhoon formation are the dominant drivers favoring a total exceeding 8 landfalls in China for 2026.**
A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies already reaching +2.5°C in July and projected to intensify further through late 2026, is enhancing tropical cyclone genesis across the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea. This aligns with climatological patterns where El Niño shifts genesis locations favorably for tracks toward China while boosting overall activity. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 named storms for the full season (above the long-term average of ~25–26), with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China—near or slightly above the historical annual mean of roughly 7–9 landfalls (1949–2022 data from CMA best-track records show ~8.8 on average, with recent decades closer to 6–8).
By late August 2026, multiple landfalls have already occurred, including Maysak and Bavi (July), Hongxia (late July, Guangdong), Dolphin (August 9, Zhejiang), Saudel (August 28–29, Zhejiang), Narra (August 25–26, Hainan/Guangdong), and Gaenari (mid-to-late August, Fujian). This elevated pace, combined with the ongoing peak season (July–September) and forecasts of continued above-average activity into September–October, supports trader consensus around totals of 9 or more. Remaining uncertainty stems from steering patterns, rapid weakening over land, and potential model divergence on late-season recurvature, but current atmospheric and oceanic conditions make fewer than 8 landfalls increasingly unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$16,533End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions and above-normal typhoon formation are the dominant drivers favoring a total exceeding 8 landfalls in China for 2026.** A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies already reaching +2.5°C in July and projected to intensify further through late 2026, is enhancing tropical cyclone genesis across the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea. This aligns with climatological patterns where El Niño shifts genesis locations favorably for tracks toward China while boosting overall activity. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 named storms for the full season (above the long-term average of ~25–26), with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China—near or slightly above the historical annual mean of roughly 7–9 landfalls (1949–2022 data from CMA best-track records show ~8.8 on average, with recent decades closer to 6–8). By late August 2026, multiple landfalls have already occurred, including Maysak and Bavi (July), Hongxia (late July, Guangdong), Dolphin (August 9, Zhejiang), Saudel (August 28–29, Zhejiang), Narra (August 25–26, Hainan/Guangdong), and Gaenari (mid-to-late August, Fujian). This elevated pace, combined with the ongoing peak season (July–September) and forecasts of continued above-average activity into September–October, supports trader consensus around totals of 9 or more. Remaining uncertainty stems from steering patterns, rapid weakening over land, and potential model divergence on late-season recurvature, but current atmospheric and oceanic conditions make fewer than 8 landfalls increasingly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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