**Early September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong has totaled only about 28 mm through the first three days, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 288–321 mm for the full month.** Current Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid-month under variable easterly and southerly flows, with no strong monsoon trough or tropical cyclone signals yet. This pattern supports trader consensus around the <275 mm outcome at 58.5% implied probability, as cumulative totals are tracking toward or below normal unless late-month systems intensify. Model guidance shows limited organized rainfall potential in the near term, keeping higher bins (e.g., 325–350 mm at 10%) as longer shots dependent on later developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 59%
275-300mm 14%
325-350mm 10%
550mm+ 7.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
59%
275-300mm
14%
300-325mm
7%
325-350mm
10%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
5%
400-450mm
5%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
4%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 59%
275-300mm 14%
325-350mm 10%
550mm+ 7.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$6,903 Vol.
59%
275-300mm
$283 Vol.
14%
300-325mm
$185 Vol.
7%
325-350mm
$206 Vol.
10%
350-375mm
$195 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$194 Vol.
5%
400-450mm
$210 Vol.
5%
450-500mm
$235 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$206 Vol.
4%
550mm+
$223 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Early September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong has totaled only about 28 mm through the first three days, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 288–321 mm for the full month.** Current Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid-month under variable easterly and southerly flows, with no strong monsoon trough or tropical cyclone signals yet. This pattern supports trader consensus around the <275 mm outcome at 58.5% implied probability, as cumulative totals are tracking toward or below normal unless late-month systems intensify. Model guidance shows limited organized rainfall potential in the near term, keeping higher bins (e.g., 325–350 mm at 10%) as longer shots dependent on later developments.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$8,838End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Early September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong has totaled only about 28 mm through the first three days, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 288–321 mm for the full month.** Current Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid-month under variable easterly and southerly flows, with no strong monsoon trough or tropical cyclone signals yet. This pattern supports trader consensus around the <275 mm outcome at 58.5% implied probability, as cumulative totals are tracking toward or below normal unless late-month systems intensify. Model guidance shows limited organized rainfall potential in the near term, keeping higher bins (e.g., 325–350 mm at 10%) as longer shots dependent on later developments.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,838End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Early September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong has totaled only about 28 mm through the first three days, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 288–321 mm for the full month.** Current Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid-month under variable easterly and southerly flows, with no strong monsoon trough or tropical cyclone signals yet. This pattern supports trader consensus around the <275 mm outcome at 58.5% implied probability, as cumulative totals are tracking toward or below normal unless late-month systems intensify. Model guidance shows limited organized rainfall potential in the near term, keeping higher bins (e.g., 325–350 mm at 10%) as longer shots dependent on later developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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