**Trader consensus heavily favors totals below 1 inch for Seattle precipitation in September 2026, with the <1" bin at 52.5% implied probability.** This reflects the month’s typical climatology—September averages only about 1.6 inches historically, concentrated later in the period—combined with an exceptionally dry start and persistent high-pressure dominance. Through September 6, official measurements show just 0.18–0.36 inches accumulated, mostly from a brief early-month system. Short-term forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate continued mostly sunny, stable conditions with minimal rain chances through at least mid-month, consistent with the dry late-summer pattern that has produced several sub-1-inch Septembers in recent years (e.g., 0.62" in 2024, 0.76" in 2025). Key variables that could shift odds include any strengthening of onshore flow or Pacific troughing later in the month, which historically boosts totals toward or above the 1.5–2" range. Current model consensus and the strong early-month dryness keep the lower bins dominant in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Seattle in September?
Precipitation in Seattle in September?
<1" 52%
1-1.5" 11%
1.5-2" 8%
2-2.5" 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
52%
1-1.5"
11%
1.5-2"
8%
2-2.5"
7%
>4"
6%
2.5-3"
4%
3-4"
4%
<1" 52%
1-1.5" 11%
1.5-2" 8%
2-2.5" 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
$455 Vol.
52%
1-1.5"
$278 Vol.
11%
1.5-2"
$298 Vol.
8%
2-2.5"
$241 Vol.
7%
>4"
$515 Vol.
6%
2.5-3"
$305 Vol.
4%
3-4"
$311 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favors totals below 1 inch for Seattle precipitation in September 2026, with the <1" bin at 52.5% implied probability.** This reflects the month’s typical climatology—September averages only about 1.6 inches historically, concentrated later in the period—combined with an exceptionally dry start and persistent high-pressure dominance.
Through September 6, official measurements show just 0.18–0.36 inches accumulated, mostly from a brief early-month system. Short-term forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate continued mostly sunny, stable conditions with minimal rain chances through at least mid-month, consistent with the dry late-summer pattern that has produced several sub-1-inch Septembers in recent years (e.g., 0.62" in 2024, 0.76" in 2025).
Key variables that could shift odds include any strengthening of onshore flow or Pacific troughing later in the month, which historically boosts totals toward or above the 1.5–2" range. Current model consensus and the strong early-month dryness keep the lower bins dominant in trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$2,403End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favors totals below 1 inch for Seattle precipitation in September 2026, with the <1" bin at 52.5% implied probability.** This reflects the month’s typical climatology—September averages only about 1.6 inches historically, concentrated later in the period—combined with an exceptionally dry start and persistent high-pressure dominance.
Through September 6, official measurements show just 0.18–0.36 inches accumulated, mostly from a brief early-month system. Short-term forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate continued mostly sunny, stable conditions with minimal rain chances through at least mid-month, consistent with the dry late-summer pattern that has produced several sub-1-inch Septembers in recent years (e.g., 0.62" in 2024, 0.76" in 2025).
Key variables that could shift odds include any strengthening of onshore flow or Pacific troughing later in the month, which historically boosts totals toward or above the 1.5–2" range. Current model consensus and the strong early-month dryness keep the lower bins dominant in trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,403End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors totals below 1 inch for Seattle precipitation in September 2026, with the <1" bin at 52.5% implied probability.** This reflects the month’s typical climatology—September averages only about 1.6 inches historically, concentrated later in the period—combined with an exceptionally dry start and persistent high-pressure dominance. Through September 6, official measurements show just 0.18–0.36 inches accumulated, mostly from a brief early-month system. Short-term forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate continued mostly sunny, stable conditions with minimal rain chances through at least mid-month, consistent with the dry late-summer pattern that has produced several sub-1-inch Septembers in recent years (e.g., 0.62" in 2024, 0.76" in 2025). Key variables that could shift odds include any strengthening of onshore flow or Pacific troughing later in the month, which historically boosts totals toward or above the 1.5–2" range. Current model consensus and the strong early-month dryness keep the lower bins dominant in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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