Recent dry conditions and model consensus for mostly sunny skies with minimal rainfall through mid-September have positioned the sub-75 mm outcome as the market leader for total Seoul precipitation. Official Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble forecasts show light or no precipitation expected in the capital over the next 10–14 days, well below the long-term September average of roughly 130–140 mm. With only about three weeks remaining, traders appear to discount late-month typhoon or frontal activity that could push totals into the 100–150 mm range. Historical variability remains, however, as September totals have ranged from under 50 mm to over 300 mm in recent decades, and any shift in steering patterns or model runs could quickly alter implied probabilities.