Skip to main content
icon for Precipitation in NYC in August?

Precipitation in NYC in August?

icon for Precipitation in NYC in August?

Precipitation in NYC in August?

NYC

Hong Kong

London

Seattle

NYC

Hong Kong

London

Seattle

>6" 97.6%

<2" <1%

2-3" <1%

3-4" <1%

Polymarket
NEW

>6" 97.6%

<2" <1%

2-3" <1%

3-4" <1%

Polymarket
NEW

<2"

$1,267 Vol.

<1%

2-3"

$820 Vol.

<1%

3-4"

$767 Vol.

<1%

4-5"

$574 Vol.

<1%

5-6"

$500 Vol.

<1%

>6"

$1,226 Vol.

98%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.As of late August 2026, Central Park has already recorded 8.49 inches of precipitation month-to-date per National Weather Service observations, well above the 4.6-inch climatological average for the full month and the 4.17-inch normal through this date. Multiple heavy rain events, including nearly 3 inches on August 20, combined with elevated atmospheric moisture from Gulf and Caribbean sources, have driven the surge. With only two days remaining and National Weather Service and NOAA guidance showing low probabilities for significant additional rainfall, the total is projected to finish near or above 8–9 inches. This leaves little realistic path below 6 inches absent major downward revisions to verified measurements, supporting the market-implied odds exceeding 97% for the >6" outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.

If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,154
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.As of late August 2026, Central Park has already recorded 8.49 inches of precipitation month-to-date per National Weather Service observations, well above the 4.6-inch climatological average for the full month and the 4.17-inch normal through this date. Multiple heavy rain events, including nearly 3 inches on August 20, combined with elevated atmospheric moisture from Gulf and Caribbean sources, have driven the surge. With only two days remaining and National Weather Service and NOAA guidance showing low probabilities for significant additional rainfall, the total is projected to finish near or above 8–9 inches. This leaves little realistic path below 6 inches absent major downward revisions to verified measurements, supporting the market-implied odds exceeding 97% for the >6" outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.

If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,154
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Related

icon for Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?

Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?

89%
icon for Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in August?

Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in August?

74%
icon for Will it rain in Miami, FL on August 29?

Will it rain in Miami, FL on August 29?

59%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in NYC in August?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">6"" at 98%, followed by "<2"" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Precipitation in NYC in August?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Precipitation in NYC in August?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in NYC in August?" is ">6"" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<2"" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in NYC in August?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.