**Elevated inflation and RBA hawkishness are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the policy rate at 4.35% after the August hold, July CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year while the trimmed mean remained steady at 3.6%, still well above the 2–3% target and prompting major banks such as CommBank to shift forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike. Recent RBA minutes revealed internal division, with several members highlighting upside inflation risks from domestic capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, while the Board signaled readiness to tighten further if data warrant. Labor market conditions have softened modestly, with unemployment near 4.4%, yet remain tight enough to sustain wage pressures. September-quarter inflation due in late October and the early-November meeting itself represent the next key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied odds of roughly two-thirds for no change versus one-third for a modest increase.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change 67%
25 bps increase 33.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$23,695 Vol.
$23,695 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
67%
25 bps increase
34%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 67%
25 bps increase 33.8%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$23,695 Vol.
$23,695 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,316 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$1,461 Vol.
<1%
No change
$16,861 Vol.
67%
25 bps increase
$3,461 Vol.
34%
50+ bps increase
$596 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated inflation and RBA hawkishness are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the policy rate at 4.35% after the August hold, July CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year while the trimmed mean remained steady at 3.6%, still well above the 2–3% target and prompting major banks such as CommBank to shift forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike. Recent RBA minutes revealed internal division, with several members highlighting upside inflation risks from domestic capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, while the Board signaled readiness to tighten further if data warrant. Labor market conditions have softened modestly, with unemployment near 4.4%, yet remain tight enough to sustain wage pressures. September-quarter inflation due in late October and the early-November meeting itself represent the next key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied odds of roughly two-thirds for no change versus one-third for a modest increase.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volume
$23,695End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated inflation and RBA hawkishness are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the policy rate at 4.35% after the August hold, July CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year while the trimmed mean remained steady at 3.6%, still well above the 2–3% target and prompting major banks such as CommBank to shift forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike. Recent RBA minutes revealed internal division, with several members highlighting upside inflation risks from domestic capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, while the Board signaled readiness to tighten further if data warrant. Labor market conditions have softened modestly, with unemployment near 4.4%, yet remain tight enough to sustain wage pressures. September-quarter inflation due in late October and the early-November meeting itself represent the next key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied odds of roughly two-thirds for no change versus one-third for a modest increase.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$23,695End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation and RBA hawkishness are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the policy rate at 4.35% after the August hold, July CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year while the trimmed mean remained steady at 3.6%, still well above the 2–3% target and prompting major banks such as CommBank to shift forecasts toward a 25 basis point hike. Recent RBA minutes revealed internal division, with several members highlighting upside inflation risks from domestic capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, while the Board signaled readiness to tighten further if data warrant. Labor market conditions have softened modestly, with unemployment near 4.4%, yet remain tight enough to sustain wage pressures. September-quarter inflation due in late October and the early-November meeting itself represent the next key catalysts that could shift the current market-implied odds of roughly two-thirds for no change versus one-third for a modest increase.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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