**Strong model consensus and rapid intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño event drive the 75% market-implied probability that peak RONI exceeds 2.5°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening since spring 2026, with July Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +1.4°C (eastern Pacific sectors higher) and RONI at +1.0°C for MJJ. Subsurface heat content anomalies exceed +10°C in places, supported by persistent low-level westerly winds and enhanced central Pacific convection. The August 13 CPC/IRI outlook assigns >90% odds of a very strong peak (≥ +2.0°C RONI) during OND 2026 and 69% odds of a historic event surpassing all post-1950 episodes on the three-month RONI. Multi-model ensembles center the maximum in October–December, consistent with the trajectory of past super El Niños (1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) but amplified by current ocean-atmosphere coupling. Traders therefore price the Over 2.5 outcome heavily, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range around an exceptionally warm forecast peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.5 75%
2.25–2.5 23%
2.0–2.25 4.2%
1.5–2.0 <1%
$11,321 Vol.
$11,321 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
<1%
1.5–2.0
1%
2.0–2.25
4%
2.25–2.5
23%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 2.5 75%
2.25–2.5 23%
2.0–2.25 4.2%
1.5–2.0 <1%
$11,321 Vol.
$11,321 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
$696 Vol.
<1%
1.5–2.0
$898 Vol.
1%
2.0–2.25
$1,527 Vol.
4%
2.25–2.5
$3,005 Vol.
23%
Over 2.5
$5,195 Vol.
75%
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.**Strong model consensus and rapid intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño event drive the 75% market-implied probability that peak RONI exceeds 2.5°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening since spring 2026, with July Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +1.4°C (eastern Pacific sectors higher) and RONI at +1.0°C for MJJ. Subsurface heat content anomalies exceed +10°C in places, supported by persistent low-level westerly winds and enhanced central Pacific convection. The August 13 CPC/IRI outlook assigns >90% odds of a very strong peak (≥ +2.0°C RONI) during OND 2026 and 69% odds of a historic event surpassing all post-1950 episodes on the three-month RONI. Multi-model ensembles center the maximum in October–December, consistent with the trajectory of past super El Niños (1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) but amplified by current ocean-atmosphere coupling. Traders therefore price the Over 2.5 outcome heavily, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range around an exceptionally warm forecast peak.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$11,321End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.**Strong model consensus and rapid intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño event drive the 75% market-implied probability that peak RONI exceeds 2.5°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening since spring 2026, with July Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +1.4°C (eastern Pacific sectors higher) and RONI at +1.0°C for MJJ. Subsurface heat content anomalies exceed +10°C in places, supported by persistent low-level westerly winds and enhanced central Pacific convection. The August 13 CPC/IRI outlook assigns >90% odds of a very strong peak (≥ +2.0°C RONI) during OND 2026 and 69% odds of a historic event surpassing all post-1950 episodes on the three-month RONI. Multi-model ensembles center the maximum in October–December, consistent with the trajectory of past super El Niños (1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) but amplified by current ocean-atmosphere coupling. Traders therefore price the Over 2.5 outcome heavily, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range around an exceptionally warm forecast peak.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Volume
$11,321End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong model consensus and rapid intensification of the 2026–27 El Niño event drive the 75% market-implied probability that peak RONI exceeds 2.5°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño conditions strengthening since spring 2026, with July Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +1.4°C (eastern Pacific sectors higher) and RONI at +1.0°C for MJJ. Subsurface heat content anomalies exceed +10°C in places, supported by persistent low-level westerly winds and enhanced central Pacific convection. The August 13 CPC/IRI outlook assigns >90% odds of a very strong peak (≥ +2.0°C RONI) during OND 2026 and 69% odds of a historic event surpassing all post-1950 episodes on the three-month RONI. Multi-model ensembles center the maximum in October–December, consistent with the trajectory of past super El Niños (1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) but amplified by current ocean-atmosphere coupling. Traders therefore price the Over 2.5 outcome heavily, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range around an exceptionally warm forecast peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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