Recent rainfall across southern Germany and Alpine headwaters has lifted Rhine gauges, including a gradual rise at the critical Kaub bottleneck, where levels remain well below navigational norms for fully loaded vessels. This short-term improvement underpins trader consensus on a swift return to normal before September 1, while forecasts from waterway authorities and river-watch models point to only modest further gains through mid-September amid below-average flows. Lingering effects from the summer drought and heatwave sustain the smaller probabilities for later windows, as full restoration for inland shipping typically requires sustained higher inflows that historical patterns suggest may extend into early autumn.