OpenAI’s GPT Image 2 leads current text-to-image benchmarks with top Elo scores and strong preference in blind arenas as of late August 2026, driven by its April release that added native reasoning, superior prompt adherence, multilingual text rendering, and complex scene composition. This performance has solidified trader consensus around OpenAI capturing the highest implied probability for the best model by end of September. Google’s Nano Banana variants remain competitive in photorealism and editing but trail in overall rankings, while models from Microsoft AI, Reve, ByteDance, xAI, and others show narrower strengths without matching OpenAI’s broad lead. With resolution imminent, limited time remains for major capability shifts from competitors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 81%
SpaceXAI 6.7%
Reve 5.1%
Microsoft AI 5.0%
$33,916 Vol.
$33,916 Vol.

OpenAI
81%

SpaceXAI
7%

Reve
5%

Microsoft AI
5%

5%

ByteDance
4%

Meta
1%

Black Forest Labs
1%

Recraft
<1%

Ideogram
<1%

Tencent
<1%

Luma AI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%
OpenAI 81%
SpaceXAI 6.7%
Reve 5.1%
Microsoft AI 5.0%
$33,916 Vol.
$33,916 Vol.

OpenAI
81%

SpaceXAI
7%

Reve
5%

Microsoft AI
5%

5%

ByteDance
4%

Meta
1%

Black Forest Labs
1%

Recraft
<1%

Ideogram
<1%

Tencent
<1%

Luma AI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-imageResolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-imageResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s GPT Image 2 leads current text-to-image benchmarks with top Elo scores and strong preference in blind arenas as of late August 2026, driven by its April release that added native reasoning, superior prompt adherence, multilingual text rendering, and complex scene composition. This performance has solidified trader consensus around OpenAI capturing the highest implied probability for the best model by end of September. Google’s Nano Banana variants remain competitive in photorealism and editing but trail in overall rankings, while models from Microsoft AI, Reve, ByteDance, xAI, and others show narrower strengths without matching OpenAI’s broad lead. With resolution imminent, limited time remains for major capability shifts from competitors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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