**Trader consensus at 98.2% for “No” reflects the calendar reality and suppressed Atlantic conditions as August closes.** With only hours remaining, no organized tropical cyclone exists in the basin, and the National Hurricane Center reports zero active systems along with very low (near 0–10%) short-term development odds for the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly or other waves. The 2026 season has produced just four brief tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August—the longest modern-era wait for the first hurricane—amid elevated wind shear and other El Niño-related hostile factors that have kept accumulated cyclone energy at only 3.6 (roughly 11% of the long-term average). Dolly, the most recent system, peaked at only 35–40 kt before weakening and is now a disorganized wave east of the Leeward Islands with no closed circulation and minimal redevelopment potential before it reaches the Caribbean. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome are limited to an extraordinarily rapid genesis and intensification of a new disturbance within the next 24–48 hours followed by an unusually direct track to the U.S. coast—both statistically improbable given current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus. Official outlooks continue to flag the remainder of the season (primarily September–October) as the period most likely to see activity, underscoring why traders assign near-certainty to no August hurricane landfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
2% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
2% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.**Trader consensus at 98.2% for “No” reflects the calendar reality and suppressed Atlantic conditions as August closes.** With only hours remaining, no organized tropical cyclone exists in the basin, and the National Hurricane Center reports zero active systems along with very low (near 0–10%) short-term development odds for the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly or other waves.
The 2026 season has produced just four brief tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August—the longest modern-era wait for the first hurricane—amid elevated wind shear and other El Niño-related hostile factors that have kept accumulated cyclone energy at only 3.6 (roughly 11% of the long-term average). Dolly, the most recent system, peaked at only 35–40 kt before weakening and is now a disorganized wave east of the Leeward Islands with no closed circulation and minimal redevelopment potential before it reaches the Caribbean.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome are limited to an extraordinarily rapid genesis and intensification of a new disturbance within the next 24–48 hours followed by an unusually direct track to the U.S. coast—both statistically improbable given current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus. Official outlooks continue to flag the remainder of the season (primarily September–October) as the period most likely to see activity, underscoring why traders assign near-certainty to no August hurricane landfall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$1,392End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.**Trader consensus at 98.2% for “No” reflects the calendar reality and suppressed Atlantic conditions as August closes.** With only hours remaining, no organized tropical cyclone exists in the basin, and the National Hurricane Center reports zero active systems along with very low (near 0–10%) short-term development odds for the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly or other waves.
The 2026 season has produced just four brief tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August—the longest modern-era wait for the first hurricane—amid elevated wind shear and other El Niño-related hostile factors that have kept accumulated cyclone energy at only 3.6 (roughly 11% of the long-term average). Dolly, the most recent system, peaked at only 35–40 kt before weakening and is now a disorganized wave east of the Leeward Islands with no closed circulation and minimal redevelopment potential before it reaches the Caribbean.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome are limited to an extraordinarily rapid genesis and intensification of a new disturbance within the next 24–48 hours followed by an unusually direct track to the U.S. coast—both statistically improbable given current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus. Official outlooks continue to flag the remainder of the season (primarily September–October) as the period most likely to see activity, underscoring why traders assign near-certainty to no August hurricane landfall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Volume
$1,392End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 98.2% for “No” reflects the calendar reality and suppressed Atlantic conditions as August closes.** With only hours remaining, no organized tropical cyclone exists in the basin, and the National Hurricane Center reports zero active systems along with very low (near 0–10%) short-term development odds for the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly or other waves. The 2026 season has produced just four brief tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August—the longest modern-era wait for the first hurricane—amid elevated wind shear and other El Niño-related hostile factors that have kept accumulated cyclone energy at only 3.6 (roughly 11% of the long-term average). Dolly, the most recent system, peaked at only 35–40 kt before weakening and is now a disorganized wave east of the Leeward Islands with no closed circulation and minimal redevelopment potential before it reaches the Caribbean. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome are limited to an extraordinarily rapid genesis and intensification of a new disturbance within the next 24–48 hours followed by an unusually direct track to the U.S. coast—both statistically improbable given current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus. Official outlooks continue to flag the remainder of the season (primarily September–October) as the period most likely to see activity, underscoring why traders assign near-certainty to no August hurricane landfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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