BFP holds the highest implied probability among contenders for the September 14, 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament election due to recent high-profile defections from UBJP ranks, including figures such as Esmael Mangudadatu, and Comelec’s designation of BFP as the dominant minority party. UBJP retains core support as the MILF-affiliated vehicle but faces erosion from these shifts ahead of the first regular polls ending the transition authority period. Thirteen accredited regional parties compete for 40 proportional-representation seats under a 2.5% threshold alongside 32 district contests and eight sectoral seats, producing a fragmented field where BFP and UBJP lead but no single list commands a clear majority. The August 27 debate and non-Moro indigenous selection process highlighted platforms on governance, security, and economic development, while localized violence and red alerts underscore ongoing risks that could influence turnout and alliances in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBFP 58%
UBJP 36%
BGC 1.0%
Election Postponed/Canceled <1%
$78,363 Vol.
$78,363 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
BFP
58%
UBJP
36%
BGC
1%
Election Postponed/Canceled
1%
PRO BANGSAMORO PARTY
1%
LBIAA
<1%
RSEU
<1%
ROHOSUMA
<1%
TPWC
<1%
RSL
<1%
DTLO
<1%
ABOT
<1%
BAPA
<1%
BEST PARTY
<1%
ISAMA
<1%
MAHARDIKA
<1%
MORO AKO
<1%
MUSHAWARA
<1%
PBB
<1%
RAAYAT DEMOCRATIC PARTY
<1%
C4P
<1%
THE ROYALS
<1%
ROHOSUPA
<1%
ISLPI
<1%
BFP 58%
UBJP 36%
BGC 1.0%
Election Postponed/Canceled <1%
$78,363 Vol.
$78,363 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
BFP
$14,141 Vol.
58%
UBJP
$47,872 Vol.
36%
BGC
$1,066 Vol.
1%
Election Postponed/Canceled
$921 Vol.
1%
PRO BANGSAMORO PARTY
$743 Vol.
1%
LBIAA
$967 Vol.
<1%
RSEU
$803 Vol.
<1%
ROHOSUMA
$1,184 Vol.
<1%
TPWC
$541 Vol.
<1%
RSL
$552 Vol.
<1%
DTLO
$738 Vol.
<1%
ABOT
$671 Vol.
<1%
BAPA
$756 Vol.
<1%
BEST PARTY
$709 Vol.
<1%
ISAMA
$662 Vol.
<1%
MAHARDIKA
$707 Vol.
<1%
MORO AKO
$662 Vol.
<1%
MUSHAWARA
$701 Vol.
<1%
PBB
$596 Vol.
<1%
RAAYAT DEMOCRATIC PARTY
$637 Vol.
<1%
C4P
$789 Vol.
<1%
THE ROYALS
$627 Vol.
<1%
ROHOSUPA
$642 Vol.
<1%
ISLPI
$673 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).BFP holds the highest implied probability among contenders for the September 14, 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament election due to recent high-profile defections from UBJP ranks, including figures such as Esmael Mangudadatu, and Comelec’s designation of BFP as the dominant minority party. UBJP retains core support as the MILF-affiliated vehicle but faces erosion from these shifts ahead of the first regular polls ending the transition authority period. Thirteen accredited regional parties compete for 40 proportional-representation seats under a 2.5% threshold alongside 32 district contests and eight sectoral seats, producing a fragmented field where BFP and UBJP lead but no single list commands a clear majority. The August 27 debate and non-Moro indigenous selection process highlighted platforms on governance, security, and economic development, while localized violence and red alerts underscore ongoing risks that could influence turnout and alliances in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ET
Volume
$78,363End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).BFP holds the highest implied probability among contenders for the September 14, 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament election due to recent high-profile defections from UBJP ranks, including figures such as Esmael Mangudadatu, and Comelec’s designation of BFP as the dominant minority party. UBJP retains core support as the MILF-affiliated vehicle but faces erosion from these shifts ahead of the first regular polls ending the transition authority period. Thirteen accredited regional parties compete for 40 proportional-representation seats under a 2.5% threshold alongside 32 district contests and eight sectoral seats, producing a fragmented field where BFP and UBJP lead but no single list commands a clear majority. The August 27 debate and non-Moro indigenous selection process highlighted platforms on governance, security, and economic development, while localized violence and red alerts underscore ongoing risks that could influence turnout and alliances in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
Volume
$78,363End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...BFP holds the highest implied probability among contenders for the September 14, 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament election due to recent high-profile defections from UBJP ranks, including figures such as Esmael Mangudadatu, and Comelec’s designation of BFP as the dominant minority party. UBJP retains core support as the MILF-affiliated vehicle but faces erosion from these shifts ahead of the first regular polls ending the transition authority period. Thirteen accredited regional parties compete for 40 proportional-representation seats under a 2.5% threshold alongside 32 district contests and eight sectoral seats, producing a fragmented field where BFP and UBJP lead but no single list commands a clear majority. The August 27 debate and non-Moro indigenous selection process highlighted platforms on governance, security, and economic development, while localized violence and red alerts underscore ongoing risks that could influence turnout and alliances in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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