Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, following a 3.5% June reading, anchors trader positioning around similar outcomes for the August annual print, with 3.4% and 3.3% capturing nearly 80% of implied probability. Sticky core measures, elevated energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, and a July PCE inflation reading holding at 3.7% have limited expectations for sharper disinflation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to an August CPI near 3.37%, while recent FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole remarks, underscore persistent above-target pressures without signaling an imminent break lower. The August CPI release, due in mid-September, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.4% 46%
3.3% 35%
3.5% 12%
3.2% 8.4%
$44,789 Vol.
$44,789 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.9%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
2%
3.2%
8%
3.3%
35%
3.4%
46%
3.5%
12%
3.6%
2%
3.7%
1%
3.8%
1%
3.9%
1%
≥4.0%
<1%
3.4% 46%
3.3% 35%
3.5% 12%
3.2% 8.4%
$44,789 Vol.
$44,789 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.9%
$1,039 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$884 Vol.
1%
3.1%
$988 Vol.
2%
3.2%
$1,383 Vol.
8%
3.3%
$10,280 Vol.
35%
3.4%
$15,067 Vol.
46%
3.5%
$10,028 Vol.
12%
3.6%
$1,512 Vol.
2%
3.7%
$783 Vol.
1%
3.8%
$958 Vol.
1%
3.9%
$1,050 Vol.
1%
≥4.0%
$818 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, following a 3.5% June reading, anchors trader positioning around similar outcomes for the August annual print, with 3.4% and 3.3% capturing nearly 80% of implied probability. Sticky core measures, elevated energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, and a July PCE inflation reading holding at 3.7% have limited expectations for sharper disinflation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to an August CPI near 3.37%, while recent FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole remarks, underscore persistent above-target pressures without signaling an imminent break lower. The August CPI release, due in mid-September, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these market-implied odds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$44,789End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, following a 3.5% June reading, anchors trader positioning around similar outcomes for the August annual print, with 3.4% and 3.3% capturing nearly 80% of implied probability. Sticky core measures, elevated energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, and a July PCE inflation reading holding at 3.7% have limited expectations for sharper disinflation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to an August CPI near 3.37%, while recent FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole remarks, underscore persistent above-target pressures without signaling an imminent break lower. The August CPI release, due in mid-September, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these market-implied odds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$44,789End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, following a 3.5% June reading, anchors trader positioning around similar outcomes for the August annual print, with 3.4% and 3.3% capturing nearly 80% of implied probability. Sticky core measures, elevated energy prices amid geopolitical pressures, and a July PCE inflation reading holding at 3.7% have limited expectations for sharper disinflation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to an August CPI near 3.37%, while recent FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole remarks, underscore persistent above-target pressures without signaling an imminent break lower. The August CPI release, due in mid-September, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions