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Politics·Taiwan

Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner

icon for Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner
Politics·Taiwan

Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner

Tsai Yi-yu 91%

Wu Pin-jui 9%

Tsai Sung-yi <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Tsai Yi-yu 91%

Wu Pin-jui 9%

Tsai Sung-yi <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Tsai Yi-yu

Tsai Yi-yu

$1,993 Vol.

91%

icon for Wu Pin-jui

Wu Pin-jui

$2,758 Vol.

9%

icon for Tsai Sung-yi

Tsai Sung-yi

$601 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Chiayi County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Tsai Yi-yu holds a commanding 91% implied probability in the Chiayi County magistrate race as the Democratic Progressive Party nominee following a decisive January 2026 primary win. Chiayi remains one of Taiwan’s strongest DPP localities, with the party holding the magistrate’s office continuously since 1993 and benefiting from organizational support by term-limited incumbent Weng Chang-liang. Opposition forces consolidated behind independent candidate Wu Pin-jui in July, drawing KMT and TPP backing, yet this coalition has shown limited traction in available polling data against the DPP ticket. Factors sustaining the gap include Tsai’s legislative record, unified local party machinery, and the county’s structural voting patterns. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high opposition turnout, late-breaking developments affecting candidate viability, or unforeseen national political events within the November 28 resolution window.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Chiayi County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$5,353
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Chiayi County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Chiayi County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Tsai Yi-yu holds a commanding 91% implied probability in the Chiayi County magistrate race as the Democratic Progressive Party nominee following a decisive January 2026 primary win. Chiayi remains one of Taiwan’s strongest DPP localities, with the party holding the magistrate’s office continuously since 1993 and benefiting from organizational support by term-limited incumbent Weng Chang-liang. Opposition forces consolidated behind independent candidate Wu Pin-jui in July, drawing KMT and TPP backing, yet this coalition has shown limited traction in available polling data against the DPP ticket. Factors sustaining the gap include Tsai’s legislative record, unified local party machinery, and the county’s structural voting patterns. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high opposition turnout, late-breaking developments affecting candidate viability, or unforeseen national political events within the November 28 resolution window.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Chiayi County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$5,353
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Chiayi County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tsai Yi-yu" at 91%, followed by "Wu Pin-jui" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner" is "Tsai Yi-yu" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Wu Pin-jui" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.