Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm on X, including original posts, quotes, and reposts, has anchored the 65-89 bracket at 97% implied probability for the September 3-5 window. Recent short-period data shows Musk averaging roughly 20-30 qualifying posts per day absent major breaking news or product launches, aligning closely with this range and giving traders high confidence in the frontrunner. The short three-day span limits room for dramatic swings unless an unforeseen event triggers sustained engagement. An upset into the 90-plus brackets would require an unusually intense burst of activity, such as rapid-fire commentary on a high-profile Tesla or SpaceX development, while a drop below 65 would need an extended quiet period that contradicts his established cadence. Resolution occurs at noon ET on September 5.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated65-89 97.0%
90-114 2.9%
115-139 <1%
40-64 <1%
$548,718 Vol.
$548,718 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
40-64
<1%
65-89
97%
90-114
3%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 97.0%
90-114 2.9%
115-139 <1%
40-64 <1%
$548,718 Vol.
$548,718 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
40-64
$134,551 Vol.
<1%
65-89
$74,208 Vol.
97%
90-114
$99,115 Vol.
3%
115-139
$80,089 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$48,637 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$12,962 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$7,042 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,657 Vol.
<1%
240+
$924 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm on X, including original posts, quotes, and reposts, has anchored the 65-89 bracket at 97% implied probability for the September 3-5 window. Recent short-period data shows Musk averaging roughly 20-30 qualifying posts per day absent major breaking news or product launches, aligning closely with this range and giving traders high confidence in the frontrunner. The short three-day span limits room for dramatic swings unless an unforeseen event triggers sustained engagement. An upset into the 90-plus brackets would require an unusually intense burst of activity, such as rapid-fire commentary on a high-profile Tesla or SpaceX development, while a drop below 65 would need an extended quiet period that contradicts his established cadence. Resolution occurs at noon ET on September 5.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$548,718End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm on X, including original posts, quotes, and reposts, has anchored the 65-89 bracket at 97% implied probability for the September 3-5 window. Recent short-period data shows Musk averaging roughly 20-30 qualifying posts per day absent major breaking news or product launches, aligning closely with this range and giving traders high confidence in the frontrunner. The short three-day span limits room for dramatic swings unless an unforeseen event triggers sustained engagement. An upset into the 90-plus brackets would require an unusually intense burst of activity, such as rapid-fire commentary on a high-profile Tesla or SpaceX development, while a drop below 65 would need an extended quiet period that contradicts his established cadence. Resolution occurs at noon ET on September 5.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$548,718End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm on X, including original posts, quotes, and reposts, has anchored the 65-89 bracket at 97% implied probability for the September 3-5 window. Recent short-period data shows Musk averaging roughly 20-30 qualifying posts per day absent major breaking news or product launches, aligning closely with this range and giving traders high confidence in the frontrunner. The short three-day span limits room for dramatic swings unless an unforeseen event triggers sustained engagement. An upset into the 90-plus brackets would require an unusually intense burst of activity, such as rapid-fire commentary on a high-profile Tesla or SpaceX development, while a drop below 65 would need an extended quiet period that contradicts his established cadence. Resolution occurs at noon ET on September 5.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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