Recent polling since Amcha Yisrael’s late-August launch by Ofer Winter has produced highly variable seat projections for the October 27 election, ranging from below the threshold to eight mandates and reflecting uncertainty over how many right-wing voters the new party will attract. Surveys show it drawing support primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit, while Netanyahu has publicly warned that additional small right-wing lists risk splitting the bloc and preventing a majority. The inclusion of Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad on the slate and the party’s stated preference for a broad Zionist coalition add further variables that traders are weighing against historical patterns for new entrants. These factors have kept the four main seat-range outcomes within a few percentage points of each other in the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4-6 44%
7-9 42%
10+ 42%
<4 39%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
39%
4-6
44%
7-9
42%
10+
42%
4-6 44%
7-9 42%
10+ 42%
<4 39%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
$0 Vol.
39%
4-6
$0 Vol.
44%
7-9
$0 Vol.
42%
10+
$4 Vol.
42%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling since Amcha Yisrael’s late-August launch by Ofer Winter has produced highly variable seat projections for the October 27 election, ranging from below the threshold to eight mandates and reflecting uncertainty over how many right-wing voters the new party will attract. Surveys show it drawing support primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit, while Netanyahu has publicly warned that additional small right-wing lists risk splitting the bloc and preventing a majority. The inclusion of Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad on the slate and the party’s stated preference for a broad Zionist coalition add further variables that traders are weighing against historical patterns for new entrants. These factors have kept the four main seat-range outcomes within a few percentage points of each other in the market.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$4End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling since Amcha Yisrael’s late-August launch by Ofer Winter has produced highly variable seat projections for the October 27 election, ranging from below the threshold to eight mandates and reflecting uncertainty over how many right-wing voters the new party will attract. Surveys show it drawing support primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit, while Netanyahu has publicly warned that additional small right-wing lists risk splitting the bloc and preventing a majority. The inclusion of Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad on the slate and the party’s stated preference for a broad Zionist coalition add further variables that traders are weighing against historical patterns for new entrants. These factors have kept the four main seat-range outcomes within a few percentage points of each other in the market.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$4End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling since Amcha Yisrael’s late-August launch by Ofer Winter has produced highly variable seat projections for the October 27 election, ranging from below the threshold to eight mandates and reflecting uncertainty over how many right-wing voters the new party will attract. Surveys show it drawing support primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit, while Netanyahu has publicly warned that additional small right-wing lists risk splitting the bloc and preventing a majority. The inclusion of Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad on the slate and the party’s stated preference for a broad Zionist coalition add further variables that traders are weighing against historical patterns for new entrants. These factors have kept the four main seat-range outcomes within a few percentage points of each other in the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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