Recent polling consistently places The Democrats, the left-wing Zionist party formed by the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, in the 8–11 seat range for the October 27 Knesset election. This narrow band reflects competition within the opposition bloc, variable turnout among left-leaning and Arab voters, and the 3.25% electoral threshold’s impact on smaller lists. Late-August and early-September surveys show modest swings tied to undecided voters near 11% and new right-wing entrants that could redistribute marginal seats. Traders assign roughly equal probabilities to the 8–9, 10–11, 12–13, and 14+ buckets because small shifts in bloc arithmetic or final turnout could push results across those thresholds. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 9 party-list deadline and any security or coalition signals that alter opposition consolidation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12-13 38%
14+ 34%
<8 33%
10-11 33%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<8
33%
8-9
32%
10-11
33%
12-13
38%
14+
34%
12-13 38%
14+ 34%
<8 33%
10-11 33%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<8
$0 Vol.
33%
8-9
$0 Vol.
32%
10-11
$0 Vol.
33%
12-13
$0 Vol.
38%
14+
$0 Vol.
34%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling consistently places The Democrats, the left-wing Zionist party formed by the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, in the 8–11 seat range for the October 27 Knesset election. This narrow band reflects competition within the opposition bloc, variable turnout among left-leaning and Arab voters, and the 3.25% electoral threshold’s impact on smaller lists. Late-August and early-September surveys show modest swings tied to undecided voters near 11% and new right-wing entrants that could redistribute marginal seats. Traders assign roughly equal probabilities to the 8–9, 10–11, 12–13, and 14+ buckets because small shifts in bloc arithmetic or final turnout could push results across those thresholds. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 9 party-list deadline and any security or coalition signals that alter opposition consolidation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling consistently places The Democrats, the left-wing Zionist party formed by the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, in the 8–11 seat range for the October 27 Knesset election. This narrow band reflects competition within the opposition bloc, variable turnout among left-leaning and Arab voters, and the 3.25% electoral threshold’s impact on smaller lists. Late-August and early-September surveys show modest swings tied to undecided voters near 11% and new right-wing entrants that could redistribute marginal seats. Traders assign roughly equal probabilities to the 8–9, 10–11, 12–13, and 14+ buckets because small shifts in bloc arithmetic or final turnout could push results across those thresholds. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 9 party-list deadline and any security or coalition signals that alter opposition consolidation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling consistently places The Democrats, the left-wing Zionist party formed by the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, in the 8–11 seat range for the October 27 Knesset election. This narrow band reflects competition within the opposition bloc, variable turnout among left-leaning and Arab voters, and the 3.25% electoral threshold’s impact on smaller lists. Late-August and early-September surveys show modest swings tied to undecided voters near 11% and new right-wing entrants that could redistribute marginal seats. Traders assign roughly equal probabilities to the 8–9, 10–11, 12–13, and 14+ buckets because small shifts in bloc arithmetic or final turnout could push results across those thresholds. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 9 party-list deadline and any security or coalition signals that alter opposition consolidation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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