**Bipartisan momentum for a short-term continuing resolution (CR) has driven trader expectations that Congress will extend federal funding past the September 30 end of FY2026, avoiding an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House passed a clean CR in July extending funding through early December at current levels, while the Senate approved a separate bipartisan version on August 8 by a 90-6 vote, pushing the deadline to December 11 and incorporating limited anomalies. Both chambers aim to reconcile differences quickly upon returning from recess in September, consistent with historical patterns of using stopgap measures when full-year appropriations stall. Recent prior lapses, particularly the extended DHS funding disputes earlier in FY2026, appear contained and have not disrupted the current push for a pre-deadline extension. With no evident procedural blocks or partisan standoffs blocking a CR, the 88.5% implied probability for no lapse on October 1 reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that lawmakers will prioritize continuity ahead of the new fiscal year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Bipartisan momentum for a short-term continuing resolution (CR) has driven trader expectations that Congress will extend federal funding past the September 30 end of FY2026, avoiding an appropriations lapse on October 1.**
The House passed a clean CR in July extending funding through early December at current levels, while the Senate approved a separate bipartisan version on August 8 by a 90-6 vote, pushing the deadline to December 11 and incorporating limited anomalies. Both chambers aim to reconcile differences quickly upon returning from recess in September, consistent with historical patterns of using stopgap measures when full-year appropriations stall. Recent prior lapses, particularly the extended DHS funding disputes earlier in FY2026, appear contained and have not disrupted the current push for a pre-deadline extension. With no evident procedural blocks or partisan standoffs blocking a CR, the 88.5% implied probability for no lapse on October 1 reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that lawmakers will prioritize continuity ahead of the new fiscal year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,353End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Bipartisan momentum for a short-term continuing resolution (CR) has driven trader expectations that Congress will extend federal funding past the September 30 end of FY2026, avoiding an appropriations lapse on October 1.**
The House passed a clean CR in July extending funding through early December at current levels, while the Senate approved a separate bipartisan version on August 8 by a 90-6 vote, pushing the deadline to December 11 and incorporating limited anomalies. Both chambers aim to reconcile differences quickly upon returning from recess in September, consistent with historical patterns of using stopgap measures when full-year appropriations stall. Recent prior lapses, particularly the extended DHS funding disputes earlier in FY2026, appear contained and have not disrupted the current push for a pre-deadline extension. With no evident procedural blocks or partisan standoffs blocking a CR, the 88.5% implied probability for no lapse on October 1 reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that lawmakers will prioritize continuity ahead of the new fiscal year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,353End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Bipartisan momentum for a short-term continuing resolution (CR) has driven trader expectations that Congress will extend federal funding past the September 30 end of FY2026, avoiding an appropriations lapse on October 1.** The House passed a clean CR in July extending funding through early December at current levels, while the Senate approved a separate bipartisan version on August 8 by a 90-6 vote, pushing the deadline to December 11 and incorporating limited anomalies. Both chambers aim to reconcile differences quickly upon returning from recess in September, consistent with historical patterns of using stopgap measures when full-year appropriations stall. Recent prior lapses, particularly the extended DHS funding disputes earlier in FY2026, appear contained and have not disrupted the current push for a pre-deadline extension. With no evident procedural blocks or partisan standoffs blocking a CR, the 88.5% implied probability for no lapse on October 1 reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus that lawmakers will prioritize continuity ahead of the new fiscal year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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