Current ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure setup over southern England through August 31, supporting maximum temperatures near the 21–23°C range that aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (23.5%). Late-August climatology for London shows average daily highs around 20–22°C, with the current pattern reinforced by a northward-shifted jet stream limiting cooler Atlantic air. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust readings by 1–2°C; the next major model runs and observational updates from the Met Office are expected within 24–48 hours to refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 31?
Highest temperature in London on August 31?
22°C 47%
21°C 25%
23°C 20%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
8%
21°C
25%
22°C
47%
23°C
20%
24°C
6%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 47%
21°C 25%
23°C 20%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$278 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$178 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$80 Vol.
1%
19°C
$18 Vol.
2%
20°C
$165 Vol.
8%
21°C
$231 Vol.
25%
22°C
$1,231 Vol.
47%
23°C
$596 Vol.
20%
24°C
$99 Vol.
6%
25°C
$65 Vol.
2%
26°C or higher
$75 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure setup over southern England through August 31, supporting maximum temperatures near the 21–23°C range that aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (23.5%). Late-August climatology for London shows average daily highs around 20–22°C, with the current pattern reinforced by a northward-shifted jet stream limiting cooler Atlantic air. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust readings by 1–2°C; the next major model runs and observational updates from the Met Office are expected within 24–48 hours to refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$3,016End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure setup over southern England through August 31, supporting maximum temperatures near the 21–23°C range that aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (23.5%). Late-August climatology for London shows average daily highs around 20–22°C, with the current pattern reinforced by a northward-shifted jet stream limiting cooler Atlantic air. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust readings by 1–2°C; the next major model runs and observational updates from the Met Office are expected within 24–48 hours to refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,016End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure setup over southern England through August 31, supporting maximum temperatures near the 21–23°C range that aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities of 22°C (46.5%) and 21°C (23.5%). Late-August climatology for London shows average daily highs around 20–22°C, with the current pattern reinforced by a northward-shifted jet stream limiting cooler Atlantic air. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust readings by 1–2°C; the next major model runs and observational updates from the Met Office are expected within 24–48 hours to refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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