Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind closely matched trader probabilities for San Francisco’s September 1 high temperature, with the 68–71 °F bins holding the highest implied odds near 44 %. Persistent marine-layer stratus, modulated by the strength of onshore flow and the Pacific high, creates narrow diurnal ranges typical of the Bay Area; small shifts in fog burn-off timing or 850 hPa temperatures can swing the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around a central tendency in the upper 60s to low 70s, with resolution criteria hinging on official NWS observations at downtown or airport sites. Updated model runs and morning soundings in the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution before market settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 1?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 1?
68-69°F 37%
66-67°F 24%
70-71°F 22%
62-63°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
59°F or below
1%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
24%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
22%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
15%
78°F or higher
11%
68-69°F 37%
66-67°F 24%
70-71°F 22%
62-63°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
59°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
14%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
16%
64-65°F
$6 Vol.
14%
66-67°F
$69 Vol.
24%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
21%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
22%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
12%
74-75°F
$7 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$5 Vol.
15%
78°F or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind closely matched trader probabilities for San Francisco’s September 1 high temperature, with the 68–71 °F bins holding the highest implied odds near 44 %. Persistent marine-layer stratus, modulated by the strength of onshore flow and the Pacific high, creates narrow diurnal ranges typical of the Bay Area; small shifts in fog burn-off timing or 850 hPa temperatures can swing the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around a central tendency in the upper 60s to low 70s, with resolution criteria hinging on official NWS observations at downtown or airport sites. Updated model runs and morning soundings in the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution before market settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$88End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind closely matched trader probabilities for San Francisco’s September 1 high temperature, with the 68–71 °F bins holding the highest implied odds near 44 %. Persistent marine-layer stratus, modulated by the strength of onshore flow and the Pacific high, creates narrow diurnal ranges typical of the Bay Area; small shifts in fog burn-off timing or 850 hPa temperatures can swing the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around a central tendency in the upper 60s to low 70s, with resolution criteria hinging on official NWS observations at downtown or airport sites. Updated model runs and morning soundings in the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution before market settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$88End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind closely matched trader probabilities for San Francisco’s September 1 high temperature, with the 68–71 °F bins holding the highest implied odds near 44 %. Persistent marine-layer stratus, modulated by the strength of onshore flow and the Pacific high, creates narrow diurnal ranges typical of the Bay Area; small shifts in fog burn-off timing or 850 hPa temperatures can swing the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around a central tendency in the upper 60s to low 70s, with resolution criteria hinging on official NWS observations at downtown or airport sites. Updated model runs and morning soundings in the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution before market settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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