**Forecast models from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Buenos Aires on September 1, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light easterly or southeasterly winds.** This places the expected low in the middle of the market’s single-degree bins (around 23–25% implied probability each), while the elevated 49.5% on “6°C or below” likely reflects trader caution over possible late-model cooling or greater overnight radiative cooling if skies clear more than expected. The 29.5% on “16°C or higher” captures residual warm-air advection risk if winds shift. September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9°C, so current guidance sits slightly above average. A stronger cold front is projected to arrive later in the week (around September 4–5), dropping subsequent lows toward 6–7°C, which may be influencing some market positioning for the 1st. Short-range ensemble guidance remains tightly clustered around 10–12°C, with limited spread at this 48-hour lead time. Updated runs from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models will be the key near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 1?
11°C 50%
16°C or higher 48%
12°C 38%
13°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
6°C or below
30%
7°C
26%
8°C
27%
9°C
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
50%
12°C
38%
13°C
30%
14°C
30%
15°C
27%
16°C or higher
48%
11°C 50%
16°C or higher 48%
12°C 38%
13°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
6°C or below
$30 Vol.
30%
7°C
$0 Vol.
26%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
50%
12°C
$5 Vol.
38%
13°C
$5 Vol.
30%
14°C
$5 Vol.
30%
15°C
$5 Vol.
27%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Buenos Aires on September 1, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light easterly or southeasterly winds.** This places the expected low in the middle of the market’s single-degree bins (around 23–25% implied probability each), while the elevated 49.5% on “6°C or below” likely reflects trader caution over possible late-model cooling or greater overnight radiative cooling if skies clear more than expected. The 29.5% on “16°C or higher” captures residual warm-air advection risk if winds shift.
September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9°C, so current guidance sits slightly above average. A stronger cold front is projected to arrive later in the week (around September 4–5), dropping subsequent lows toward 6–7°C, which may be influencing some market positioning for the 1st. Short-range ensemble guidance remains tightly clustered around 10–12°C, with limited spread at this 48-hour lead time. Updated runs from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models will be the key near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Buenos Aires on September 1, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light easterly or southeasterly winds.** This places the expected low in the middle of the market’s single-degree bins (around 23–25% implied probability each), while the elevated 49.5% on “6°C or below” likely reflects trader caution over possible late-model cooling or greater overnight radiative cooling if skies clear more than expected. The 29.5% on “16°C or higher” captures residual warm-air advection risk if winds shift.
September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9°C, so current guidance sits slightly above average. A stronger cold front is projected to arrive later in the week (around September 4–5), dropping subsequent lows toward 6–7°C, which may be influencing some market positioning for the 1st. Short-range ensemble guidance remains tightly clustered around 10–12°C, with limited spread at this 48-hour lead time. Updated runs from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models will be the key near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Buenos Aires on September 1, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light easterly or southeasterly winds.** This places the expected low in the middle of the market’s single-degree bins (around 23–25% implied probability each), while the elevated 49.5% on “6°C or below” likely reflects trader caution over possible late-model cooling or greater overnight radiative cooling if skies clear more than expected. The 29.5% on “16°C or higher” captures residual warm-air advection risk if winds shift. September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9°C, so current guidance sits slightly above average. A stronger cold front is projected to arrive later in the week (around September 4–5), dropping subsequent lows toward 6–7°C, which may be influencing some market positioning for the 1st. Short-range ensemble guidance remains tightly clustered around 10–12°C, with limited spread at this 48-hour lead time. Updated runs from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models will be the key near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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