Current forecasts for Mexico City on September 1 point to overnight lows near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s tightest odds clustering around those levels amid the city’s rainy season. High humidity and frequent thunderstorm activity, driven by moist southerly flow and the region’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, limit radiative cooling at night while daytime heating remains moderate. Historical September minima average 10–13°C, but recent model runs show limited cold-air advection, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes subdued despite the 24.5% implied chance. Updated guidance from regional meteorological agencies over the next 48 hours will likely refine these temperature ranges as cloud cover and precipitation timing become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 1?
15°C 50%
16°C 49%
8°C or below 44%
18°C or higher 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
44%
9°C
28%
10°C
26%
11°C
25%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
50%
16°C
49%
17°C
33%
18°C or higher
41%
15°C 50%
16°C 49%
8°C or below 44%
18°C or higher 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
44%
9°C
$0 Vol.
28%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$5 Vol.
33%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts for Mexico City on September 1 point to overnight lows near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s tightest odds clustering around those levels amid the city’s rainy season. High humidity and frequent thunderstorm activity, driven by moist southerly flow and the region’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, limit radiative cooling at night while daytime heating remains moderate. Historical September minima average 10–13°C, but recent model runs show limited cold-air advection, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes subdued despite the 24.5% implied chance. Updated guidance from regional meteorological agencies over the next 48 hours will likely refine these temperature ranges as cloud cover and precipitation timing become clearer.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts for Mexico City on September 1 point to overnight lows near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s tightest odds clustering around those levels amid the city’s rainy season. High humidity and frequent thunderstorm activity, driven by moist southerly flow and the region’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, limit radiative cooling at night while daytime heating remains moderate. Historical September minima average 10–13°C, but recent model runs show limited cold-air advection, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes subdued despite the 24.5% implied chance. Updated guidance from regional meteorological agencies over the next 48 hours will likely refine these temperature ranges as cloud cover and precipitation timing become clearer.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts for Mexico City on September 1 point to overnight lows near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s tightest odds clustering around those levels amid the city’s rainy season. High humidity and frequent thunderstorm activity, driven by moist southerly flow and the region’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, limit radiative cooling at night while daytime heating remains moderate. Historical September minima average 10–13°C, but recent model runs show limited cold-air advection, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes subdued despite the 24.5% implied chance. Updated guidance from regional meteorological agencies over the next 48 hours will likely refine these temperature ranges as cloud cover and precipitation timing become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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