Recent model consensus from agencies and global forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cloud cover, widespread showers, and thunderstorms to São Paulo on September 1, limiting solar heating and capping daytime maxima near 22–24°C—explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Cooler advection behind the front, higher humidity, and reduced insolation differentiate the leading 23°C and 24°C outcomes from warmer scenarios, while historical early-September averages near 21–23°C provide baseline context. Updated model runs and official monitoring from Brazil’s meteorological services over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak temperature ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 1?
23°C 26%
24°C 23%
25°C 15%
22°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
7%
21°C
7%
22°C
12%
23°C
26%
24°C
23%
25°C
15%
26°C
6%
27°C
4%
28°C
3%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 26%
24°C 23%
25°C 15%
22°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
7%
21°C
$70 Vol.
7%
22°C
$0 Vol.
12%
23°C
$37 Vol.
26%
24°C
$10 Vol.
23%
25°C
$28 Vol.
15%
26°C
$0 Vol.
6%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$18 Vol.
3%
29°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies and global forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cloud cover, widespread showers, and thunderstorms to São Paulo on September 1, limiting solar heating and capping daytime maxima near 22–24°C—explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Cooler advection behind the front, higher humidity, and reduced insolation differentiate the leading 23°C and 24°C outcomes from warmer scenarios, while historical early-September averages near 21–23°C provide baseline context. Updated model runs and official monitoring from Brazil’s meteorological services over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak temperature ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$192End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies and global forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cloud cover, widespread showers, and thunderstorms to São Paulo on September 1, limiting solar heating and capping daytime maxima near 22–24°C—explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Cooler advection behind the front, higher humidity, and reduced insolation differentiate the leading 23°C and 24°C outcomes from warmer scenarios, while historical early-September averages near 21–23°C provide baseline context. Updated model runs and official monitoring from Brazil’s meteorological services over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak temperature ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$192End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies and global forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cloud cover, widespread showers, and thunderstorms to São Paulo on September 1, limiting solar heating and capping daytime maxima near 22–24°C—explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Cooler advection behind the front, higher humidity, and reduced insolation differentiate the leading 23°C and 24°C outcomes from warmer scenarios, while historical early-September averages near 21–23°C provide baseline context. Updated model runs and official monitoring from Brazil’s meteorological services over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak temperature ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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