Recent July ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6, the highest since May 2022 and driven by surging production (58.5) plus expanding new orders and employment, underpins trader expectations for a solid August reading near 55. Persistent tariff uncertainty, geopolitical supply pressures, and elevated input costs continue to weigh on sentiment, with S&P Global’s August flash at 53.2 signaling some moderation in momentum. Durable goods orders rose modestly in July while the goods trade deficit widened, reflecting resilient domestic demand alongside import surges tied to capital goods. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 54–56 because these offsetting forces—policy volatility versus underlying expansion—leave room for the headline to settle across several adjacent bands, with the August release itself serving as the immediate resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0–55.9 29%
54.0–54.9 20%
53.0–53.9 19%
56.0–56.9 14.4%
$31,665 Vol.
$31,665 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
2%
51.0–51.9
4%
52.0–52.9
11%
53.0–53.9
19%
54.0–54.9
26%
55.0–55.9
29%
56.0–56.9
11%
57.0–57.9
2%
58.0–58.9
4%
59.0+
<1%
55.0–55.9 29%
54.0–54.9 20%
53.0–53.9 19%
56.0–56.9 14.4%
$31,665 Vol.
$31,665 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
$994 Vol.
2%
51.0–51.9
$1,000 Vol.
4%
52.0–52.9
$1,124 Vol.
11%
53.0–53.9
$1,178 Vol.
19%
54.0–54.9
$5,066 Vol.
26%
55.0–55.9
$18,046 Vol.
29%
56.0–56.9
$1,451 Vol.
11%
57.0–57.9
$1,053 Vol.
2%
58.0–58.9
$1,018 Vol.
4%
59.0+
$735 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6, the highest since May 2022 and driven by surging production (58.5) plus expanding new orders and employment, underpins trader expectations for a solid August reading near 55. Persistent tariff uncertainty, geopolitical supply pressures, and elevated input costs continue to weigh on sentiment, with S&P Global’s August flash at 53.2 signaling some moderation in momentum. Durable goods orders rose modestly in July while the goods trade deficit widened, reflecting resilient domestic demand alongside import surges tied to capital goods. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 54–56 because these offsetting forces—policy volatility versus underlying expansion—leave room for the headline to settle across several adjacent bands, with the August release itself serving as the immediate resolution catalyst.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$31,665End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6, the highest since May 2022 and driven by surging production (58.5) plus expanding new orders and employment, underpins trader expectations for a solid August reading near 55. Persistent tariff uncertainty, geopolitical supply pressures, and elevated input costs continue to weigh on sentiment, with S&P Global’s August flash at 53.2 signaling some moderation in momentum. Durable goods orders rose modestly in July while the goods trade deficit widened, reflecting resilient domestic demand alongside import surges tied to capital goods. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 54–56 because these offsetting forces—policy volatility versus underlying expansion—leave room for the headline to settle across several adjacent bands, with the August release itself serving as the immediate resolution catalyst.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$31,665End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July ISM Manufacturing PMI strength at 55.6, the highest since May 2022 and driven by surging production (58.5) plus expanding new orders and employment, underpins trader expectations for a solid August reading near 55. Persistent tariff uncertainty, geopolitical supply pressures, and elevated input costs continue to weigh on sentiment, with S&P Global’s August flash at 53.2 signaling some moderation in momentum. Durable goods orders rose modestly in July while the goods trade deficit widened, reflecting resilient domestic demand alongside import surges tied to capital goods. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 54–56 because these offsetting forces—policy volatility versus underlying expansion—leave room for the headline to settle across several adjacent bands, with the August release itself serving as the immediate resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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