Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Shas at roughly seven to ten seats across multiple surveys from early September, translating to a vote share clustered near 6-8 percent. This range sustains tight pricing because the party's core Sephardi ultra-Orthodox base faces erosion from the ongoing Haredi conscription debate, with some traditional voters shifting toward Likud, Otzma Yehudit, or opposition lists. Shas has responded by finalizing a slate that includes an IDF reservist and launching campaign messaging emphasizing military service, while internal reconciliation between leader Aryeh Deri and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef aims to stabilize support. Surplus agreements and bloc dynamics add further uncertainty, keeping multiple brackets competitive until final turnout and late shifts become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<6% 49%
6-7% 32%
8-9% 24%
7-8% 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
49%
6-7%
31%
7-8%
27%
8-9%
24%
9%+
16%
<6% 49%
6-7% 32%
8-9% 24%
7-8% 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
$19 Vol.
49%
6-7%
$60 Vol.
31%
7-8%
$14 Vol.
27%
8-9%
$0 Vol.
24%
9%+
$56 Vol.
16%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Shas at roughly seven to ten seats across multiple surveys from early September, translating to a vote share clustered near 6-8 percent. This range sustains tight pricing because the party's core Sephardi ultra-Orthodox base faces erosion from the ongoing Haredi conscription debate, with some traditional voters shifting toward Likud, Otzma Yehudit, or opposition lists. Shas has responded by finalizing a slate that includes an IDF reservist and launching campaign messaging emphasizing military service, while internal reconciliation between leader Aryeh Deri and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef aims to stabilize support. Surplus agreements and bloc dynamics add further uncertainty, keeping multiple brackets competitive until final turnout and late shifts become clearer.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$149End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Shas at roughly seven to ten seats across multiple surveys from early September, translating to a vote share clustered near 6-8 percent. This range sustains tight pricing because the party's core Sephardi ultra-Orthodox base faces erosion from the ongoing Haredi conscription debate, with some traditional voters shifting toward Likud, Otzma Yehudit, or opposition lists. Shas has responded by finalizing a slate that includes an IDF reservist and launching campaign messaging emphasizing military service, while internal reconciliation between leader Aryeh Deri and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef aims to stabilize support. Surplus agreements and bloc dynamics add further uncertainty, keeping multiple brackets competitive until final turnout and late shifts become clearer.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$149End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election places Shas at roughly seven to ten seats across multiple surveys from early September, translating to a vote share clustered near 6-8 percent. This range sustains tight pricing because the party's core Sephardi ultra-Orthodox base faces erosion from the ongoing Haredi conscription debate, with some traditional voters shifting toward Likud, Otzma Yehudit, or opposition lists. Shas has responded by finalizing a slate that includes an IDF reservist and launching campaign messaging emphasizing military service, while internal reconciliation between leader Aryeh Deri and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef aims to stabilize support. Surplus agreements and bloc dynamics add further uncertainty, keeping multiple brackets competitive until final turnout and late shifts become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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