Unity, a short-lived right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on September 4 following consistently low polling and unsuccessful alliance talks with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White. The party cited its inability to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold and limited voter appetite for a broad Zionist unity government as reasons for exiting before candidate lists closed. With no slate submitted and surplus-vote agreements finalized among remaining parties, traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-0.5% vote share. Late developments such as renewed negotiations or a reversal of the withdrawal remain improbable given the fixed timeline and institutional confirmation of the party’s absence from the ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<0.5% 96.4%
0.5-0.75% <1%
0.75-1% <1%
1-2% <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<0.5%
96%
0.5-0.75%
1%
0.75-1%
1%
1-2%
1%
2%+
<1%
<0.5% 96.4%
0.5-0.75% <1%
0.75-1% <1%
1-2% <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<0.5%
$596 Vol.
96%
0.5-0.75%
$162 Vol.
1%
0.75-1%
$109 Vol.
1%
1-2%
$112 Vol.
1%
2%+
$223 Vol.
<1%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Unity, a short-lived right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on September 4 following consistently low polling and unsuccessful alliance talks with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White. The party cited its inability to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold and limited voter appetite for a broad Zionist unity government as reasons for exiting before candidate lists closed. With no slate submitted and surplus-vote agreements finalized among remaining parties, traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-0.5% vote share. Late developments such as renewed negotiations or a reversal of the withdrawal remain improbable given the fixed timeline and institutional confirmation of the party’s absence from the ballot.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,202End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Unity, a short-lived right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on September 4 following consistently low polling and unsuccessful alliance talks with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White. The party cited its inability to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold and limited voter appetite for a broad Zionist unity government as reasons for exiting before candidate lists closed. With no slate submitted and surplus-vote agreements finalized among remaining parties, traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-0.5% vote share. Late developments such as renewed negotiations or a reversal of the withdrawal remain improbable given the fixed timeline and institutional confirmation of the party’s absence from the ballot.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,202End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Unity, a short-lived right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on September 4 following consistently low polling and unsuccessful alliance talks with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White. The party cited its inability to approach the 3.25% electoral threshold and limited voter appetite for a broad Zionist unity government as reasons for exiting before candidate lists closed. With no slate submitted and surplus-vote agreements finalized among remaining parties, traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-0.5% vote share. Late developments such as renewed negotiations or a reversal of the withdrawal remain improbable given the fixed timeline and institutional confirmation of the party’s absence from the ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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