Traders assign a 97.5% probability to James Comey avoiding a prison sentence in 2026 primarily because the pending federal threat case remains in its earliest procedural stages. Comey faces two felony counts in North Carolina stemming from a 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21. Defense filings argue the post constitutes protected political speech rather than a true threat under statutes requiring intent to harm the president, citing precedent, context, and First Amendment protections. A prior 2025 indictment on unrelated charges was dismissed over prosecutorial irregularities. Even if motions to dismiss fail and a conviction occurs, sentencing timelines and appeals make a 2026 prison term improbable. Late developments such as denial of dismissal, rapid conviction, or an unexpected plea could still shift outcomes before year-end.