**Persistent warm, humid conditions with widespread thunderstorm activity are anchoring market-implied odds near 80–81°F for Miami’s September 1 minimum temperature (46.5%), closely followed by 78–79°F (41.0%).** Official National Weather Service and model guidance through late August 30 show an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms, with easterly winds and high moisture keeping overnight lows elevated. Forecasts consistently indicate a minimum around 80–81°F under partly cloudy skies, with heat indices near 105–107°F during the day. Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on the precise degree of overnight clearing versus lingering cloud cover or rain. More persistent cloudiness or showers would favor the higher end near 80–81°F, while any brief clearing could allow modest radiational cooling into the upper 70s. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected before September 1, and historical late-August/early-September baselines for Miami support overnight minima typically in the upper 70s to low 80s under similar regimes. Traders are weighting the latest NWS point forecasts and ensemble consistency, which favor the low 80s while leaving room for slight downward variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 1?
86-87°F 61%
84-85°F 60%
80-81°F 48%
76-77°F 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
73°F or below
15%
74-75°F
40%
76-77°F
43%
78-79°F
43%
80-81°F
48%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
60%
86-87°F
61%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
20%
92°F or higher
2%
86-87°F 61%
84-85°F 60%
80-81°F 48%
76-77°F 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
15%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
40%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
43%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
43%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
48%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
40%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
60%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
61%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
20%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
20%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions with widespread thunderstorm activity are anchoring market-implied odds near 80–81°F for Miami’s September 1 minimum temperature (46.5%), closely followed by 78–79°F (41.0%).** Official National Weather Service and model guidance through late August 30 show an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms, with easterly winds and high moisture keeping overnight lows elevated. Forecasts consistently indicate a minimum around 80–81°F under partly cloudy skies, with heat indices near 105–107°F during the day.
Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on the precise degree of overnight clearing versus lingering cloud cover or rain. More persistent cloudiness or showers would favor the higher end near 80–81°F, while any brief clearing could allow modest radiational cooling into the upper 70s. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected before September 1, and historical late-August/early-September baselines for Miami support overnight minima typically in the upper 70s to low 80s under similar regimes. Traders are weighting the latest NWS point forecasts and ensemble consistency, which favor the low 80s while leaving room for slight downward variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions with widespread thunderstorm activity are anchoring market-implied odds near 80–81°F for Miami’s September 1 minimum temperature (46.5%), closely followed by 78–79°F (41.0%).** Official National Weather Service and model guidance through late August 30 show an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms, with easterly winds and high moisture keeping overnight lows elevated. Forecasts consistently indicate a minimum around 80–81°F under partly cloudy skies, with heat indices near 105–107°F during the day.
Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on the precise degree of overnight clearing versus lingering cloud cover or rain. More persistent cloudiness or showers would favor the higher end near 80–81°F, while any brief clearing could allow modest radiational cooling into the upper 70s. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected before September 1, and historical late-August/early-September baselines for Miami support overnight minima typically in the upper 70s to low 80s under similar regimes. Traders are weighting the latest NWS point forecasts and ensemble consistency, which favor the low 80s while leaving room for slight downward variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent warm, humid conditions with widespread thunderstorm activity are anchoring market-implied odds near 80–81°F for Miami’s September 1 minimum temperature (46.5%), closely followed by 78–79°F (41.0%).** Official National Weather Service and model guidance through late August 30 show an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms, with easterly winds and high moisture keeping overnight lows elevated. Forecasts consistently indicate a minimum around 80–81°F under partly cloudy skies, with heat indices near 105–107°F during the day. Differentiation between the top two bins hinges on the precise degree of overnight clearing versus lingering cloud cover or rain. More persistent cloudiness or showers would favor the higher end near 80–81°F, while any brief clearing could allow modest radiational cooling into the upper 70s. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected before September 1, and historical late-August/early-September baselines for Miami support overnight minima typically in the upper 70s to low 80s under similar regimes. Traders are weighting the latest NWS point forecasts and ensemble consistency, which favor the low 80s while leaving room for slight downward variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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