Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City on September 1, 2026, indicates a high in the mid-80s amid humid southwest flow and a 60-70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, which could limit afternoon heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 84-87°F bins, as traders weigh forecast spread from differing model runs on storm timing and intensity. Historical September averages near 80°F provide context, while the short two-day lead time leaves room for revisions from updated model cycles or observed mesoscale features.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 1?
84-85°F 35%
88-89°F 29%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
19%
92°F or higher
10%
84-85°F 35%
88-89°F 29%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
14%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
15%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
27%
84-85°F
$14 Vol.
21%
86-87°F
$33 Vol.
26%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
29%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
19%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City on September 1, 2026, indicates a high in the mid-80s amid humid southwest flow and a 60-70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, which could limit afternoon heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 84-87°F bins, as traders weigh forecast spread from differing model runs on storm timing and intensity. Historical September averages near 80°F provide context, while the short two-day lead time leaves room for revisions from updated model cycles or observed mesoscale features.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$48End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City on September 1, 2026, indicates a high in the mid-80s amid humid southwest flow and a 60-70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, which could limit afternoon heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 84-87°F bins, as traders weigh forecast spread from differing model runs on storm timing and intensity. Historical September averages near 80°F provide context, while the short two-day lead time leaves room for revisions from updated model cycles or observed mesoscale features.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$48End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance for New York City on September 1, 2026, indicates a high in the mid-80s amid humid southwest flow and a 60-70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, which could limit afternoon heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 84-87°F bins, as traders weigh forecast spread from differing model runs on storm timing and intensity. Historical September averages near 80°F provide context, while the short two-day lead time leaves room for revisions from updated model cycles or observed mesoscale features.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions