Ed Markey holds a commanding lead in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary due to strong consolidation of support among progressives, liberals, and socialists, reinforced by endorsements from figures including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Recent University of New Hampshire polling from late August shows Markey ahead of Seth Moulton by 35 points or more among likely Democratic primary voters, reflecting his long record on climate policy, healthcare, and incumbency advantages in the state. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change and Markey’s age has not broadened appeal sufficiently among moderates to close the gap before the September 1 vote. Ayanna Pressley and Alexander Rikleen register negligible support. A Moulton upset would require unusually high turnout among his backers or significant polling error, though current data indicate limited realistic pathways for such a shift.