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icon for Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

Elaine Pelino 86%

Aaron Guckian 14.7%

Robert Raimondo <1%

Ashley Kalus <1%

Polymarket

$41,241 Vol.

Elaine Pelino 86%

Aaron Guckian 14.7%

Robert Raimondo <1%

Ashley Kalus <1%

Polymarket

$41,241 Vol.

icon for Elaine Pelino

Elaine Pelino

$17,980 Vol.

86%

icon for Aaron Guckian

Aaron Guckian

$13,571 Vol.

15%

icon for Robert Raimondo

Robert Raimondo

$3,591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ashley Kalus

Ashley Kalus

$3,817 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jessica de la Cruz

Jessica de la Cruz

$2,283 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Elaine Pelino holds an overwhelming lead in Rhode Island Republican primary trader pricing due to consistent polling advantages over Aaron Guckian ahead of the September 9 contest. Recent University of New Hampshire and Embold Research surveys showed Pelino ahead by roughly 20 points among likely GOP primary voters, with large undecided blocs, even as Guckian secured the state party endorsement at the June convention. Pelino’s positioning as a first-time “MAGA” candidate emphasizing government accountability and fiscal restraint has resonated in limited polling, while Guckian’s experience as a former Carcieri aide and 2022 lieutenant governor nominee, along with greater fundraising, has not closed the gap. A contentious August debate featuring personal exchanges further highlighted the race’s dynamics without shifting measurable support. Minor candidates including Robert Raimondo, Jessica de la Cruz, and Ashley Kalus register negligible odds after withdrawals or decisions not to run. Early voting underway adds limited new data before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$41,241
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Elaine Pelino holds an overwhelming lead in Rhode Island Republican primary trader pricing due to consistent polling advantages over Aaron Guckian ahead of the September 9 contest. Recent University of New Hampshire and Embold Research surveys showed Pelino ahead by roughly 20 points among likely GOP primary voters, with large undecided blocs, even as Guckian secured the state party endorsement at the June convention. Pelino’s positioning as a first-time “MAGA” candidate emphasizing government accountability and fiscal restraint has resonated in limited polling, while Guckian’s experience as a former Carcieri aide and 2022 lieutenant governor nominee, along with greater fundraising, has not closed the gap. A contentious August debate featuring personal exchanges further highlighted the race’s dynamics without shifting measurable support. Minor candidates including Robert Raimondo, Jessica de la Cruz, and Ashley Kalus register negligible odds after withdrawals or decisions not to run. Early voting underway adds limited new data before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$41,241
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elaine Pelino" at 86%, followed by "Aaron Guckian" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $41.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Elaine Pelino" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aaron Guckian" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.