Tennessee's 5th congressional district underwent significant redistricting in May 2026, removing Nashville-area territory and incorporating more rural counties plus portions of Memphis, shifting the seat toward a stronger Republican performance baseline rated R+10 or better. Republican primary voters on August 6 selected former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher over incumbent Andy Ogles by a 53-47 margin, giving the party an establishment-backed nominee in the November general election. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia mayor, advanced from his primary but faces an uphill contest in the reconfigured map. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The general election contest includes independent candidates, yet structural partisan advantages and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the outcome tilted toward the GOP.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-05 House Election Winner
TN-05 House Election Winner
$52,969 Vol.
$52,969 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
11%
$52,969 Vol.
$52,969 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$26,631 Vol.
89%
Democratic Party
$26,338 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 5th congressional district underwent significant redistricting in May 2026, removing Nashville-area territory and incorporating more rural counties plus portions of Memphis, shifting the seat toward a stronger Republican performance baseline rated R+10 or better. Republican primary voters on August 6 selected former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher over incumbent Andy Ogles by a 53-47 margin, giving the party an establishment-backed nominee in the November general election. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia mayor, advanced from his primary but faces an uphill contest in the reconfigured map. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The general election contest includes independent candidates, yet structural partisan advantages and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the outcome tilted toward the GOP.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$52,969End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 5th congressional district underwent significant redistricting in May 2026, removing Nashville-area territory and incorporating more rural counties plus portions of Memphis, shifting the seat toward a stronger Republican performance baseline rated R+10 or better. Republican primary voters on August 6 selected former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher over incumbent Andy Ogles by a 53-47 margin, giving the party an establishment-backed nominee in the November general election. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia mayor, advanced from his primary but faces an uphill contest in the reconfigured map. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The general election contest includes independent candidates, yet structural partisan advantages and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the outcome tilted toward the GOP.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,969End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 5th congressional district underwent significant redistricting in May 2026, removing Nashville-area territory and incorporating more rural counties plus portions of Memphis, shifting the seat toward a stronger Republican performance baseline rated R+10 or better. Republican primary voters on August 6 selected former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher over incumbent Andy Ogles by a 53-47 margin, giving the party an establishment-backed nominee in the November general election. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia mayor, advanced from his primary but faces an uphill contest in the reconfigured map. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The general election contest includes independent candidates, yet structural partisan advantages and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions keep the outcome tilted toward the GOP.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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