Skip to main content
icon for Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
Politics·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

icon for Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
Politics·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

2% chance
Polymarket

$149,194 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$149,194 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Strong bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Colombia underpins the market's 98% implied probability against a U.S. invasion in 2026. Following the August 2026 inauguration of President Abelardo de la Espriella, Colombia joined the Shield of the Americas anti-cartel initiative, authorized joint military operations with U.S. forces targeting narcoterrorism and trafficking networks, and received commitments for $1 billion in security assistance. Recent steps include U.S. Southern Command coordination on counternarcotics, extraditions, and precision strikes against rebel groups, reflecting aligned priorities rather than confrontation. Late-breaking diplomatic ruptures, sudden escalations in regional drug conflicts, or shifts in Colombian domestic policy represent the narrow pathways that could still influence outcomes before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$149,194
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Strong bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Colombia underpins the market's 98% implied probability against a U.S. invasion in 2026. Following the August 2026 inauguration of President Abelardo de la Espriella, Colombia joined the Shield of the Americas anti-cartel initiative, authorized joint military operations with U.S. forces targeting narcoterrorism and trafficking networks, and received commitments for $1 billion in security assistance. Recent steps include U.S. Southern Command coordination on counternarcotics, extraditions, and precision strikes against rebel groups, reflecting aligned priorities rather than confrontation. Late-breaking diplomatic ruptures, sudden escalations in regional drug conflicts, or shifts in Colombian domestic policy represent the narrow pathways that could still influence outcomes before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$149,194
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

3%
icon for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

7%
icon for Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

4%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?" has generated $149.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.